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Starbucks Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

SBUX
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsCIK 0000829224starbucks.comAbout SBUX
Last close · Oct 16, 202697.52+0.64 (+0.66%)
Market cap$111.2B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
19.86
Starbucks closed at $97.52 — overvalued by 391% vs model.
10.44the model's range48.04

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
11.83 – 80.08
Wall St. target
122.00 20% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 22 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $97.52 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 391% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.54%
Past 2 years
low 2.04%high 3.11%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.80Aug ’21$1.96Aug ’22$2.12Aug ’23$2.28Aug ’24$2.44Aug ’25$2.48TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
113.5%
Raised
15+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
6.6% a year
Last change
+1.6% · Nov 2025
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.62, paid Aug 28, 2026

Research on SBUX

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~2% recent)Thin margins (5.0% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 5.0x)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
59.8×
EV / EBITDA
23.1×
FCF yield
2.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.54%
Beta
0.97
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.48%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
08-18Needham · target120.00
08-03Melius Research · target110.00
07-30D.A. Davidson · target110.00
05-14TD Cowen · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just SBUX. No account.

About Starbucks

Starbucks Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, operates worldwide as a key player in roasting, marketing, and selling specialty coffee. Its business is structured into three main operating divisions: North America, International markets, and Channel Development. The company's retail outlets offer a broad assortment of coffee and tea beverages, roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single-serve options, and ready-to-drink products. Customers can also find a variety of food items, including pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch selections. Furthermore, Starbucks extends its brand reach by licensing its trademarks to independently operated stores, grocery retailers, and foodservice accounts. Products are sold under well-known labels such as Starbucks, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve, and Princi. As of October 3, 2021, Starbucks had a significant global presence, operating 16,826 company-owned and licensed stores across North America, in addition to 17,007 similar locations internationally. The company, established in 1971, is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Brian R. Niccol
Headquarters
Seattle, WA
Employees
381,000
IPO
1992-06-26
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.