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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CF
NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsCIK 0001324404cfindustries.comAbout CF
Last close · Oct 16, 2026120.85+1.08 (+0.90%)
Market cap$18.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
229.19
CF Industries closed at $120.85 — undervalued by 47% vs model.
143.51the model's range645.49

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
36.08 – 351.64
Wall St. target
126.00 4% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.74%
Past 2 years
low 1.45%high 2.92%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.20Aug ’21$1.40Aug ’22$1.60Aug ’23$1.90Aug ’24$2.00Aug ’25$2.10TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
18.1%
Raised
—
Growth, 5 yrs
11.8% a year
Last change
+20.0% · Aug 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.60, paid Aug 31, 2026

Research on CF

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~3% recent)High profitability (25% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (9.9%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
13.5×
EV / EBITDA
5.9×
FCF yield
9.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.74%
Beta
0.40
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.04%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-28Rothschild & Co · “Neutral” from “Sell”upgrade
09-28Redburn Partners · target110.00
09-25Bernstein · target162.00
09-10KeyBanc · target115.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
2 more companies list CF as a comparable

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CF. No account.

About CF Industries

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emissions reduction, and numerous other industrial applications. The company's core product lineup features vital nitrogen compounds such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and different forms of ammonium nitrate. In addition to these primary offerings, CF Industries also provides specialized chemicals like diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia, alongside complex fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Its diverse customer base includes agricultural cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, commodity traders, wholesalers, and a wide array of industrial end-users. Founded in 1946, the firm is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

CEO
Christopher D. Bohn
Headquarters
Northbrook, IL
Employees
2,900
IPO
2005-08-11
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.