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The Mosaic Company — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

MOS
NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsCIK 0001285785mosaicco.comAbout MOS
Last close · Oct 16, 202618.82−0.13 (−0.69%)
Market cap$6.0B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
56.34
Mosaic closed at $18.82 — undervalued by 67% vs model.
25.95the model's range147.32

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
5.31 – 53.84
Wall St. target
22.00 14% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
4.68%
#35 · Highest dividend yield
Past 2 years
low 2.27%high 4.70%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.28Dec ’21$0.56Nov ’22$0.85Sep ’23$0.83Sep ’24$0.87Sep ’25$0.88TTM
Coverage
—
Raised
7 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
26.2% a year
Last change
+4.8% · Mar 2025
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.22, paid Sep 24, 2026

Research on MOS

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Revenue declining (~-6% recent)Thin margins (4.5% net margin)Strong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earningsNegative free cash flow
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
11.1×
EV / EBITDA
4.1×
FCF yield
-9.0%
Dividend yield, TTM
4.68%
Beta
0.83
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.03%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16Barclays · target22.00
10-13Mizuho Securities · target22.00
10-05RBC Capital · “Sector Perform” from “Outperform”downgrade
10-05RBC Capital · target25.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists MOS as a comparable

The weekly

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About Mosaic

Operating on a global scale via its various subsidiaries, The Mosaic Company specializes in the creation and distribution of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Its business is structured into three distinct segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company maintains and operates its own mining facilities to extract raw materials, which are then processed into a diverse array of phosphate-based products. These offerings encompass crucial agricultural fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and various ammoniated phosphate compounds. Additionally, Mosaic produces phosphate-derived ingredients for animal feed, primarily marketed under the Biofos and Nexfos brands, along with K-Mag, a unique double sulfate of potash magnesia product. Beyond phosphates, Mosaic is a key producer and vendor of potash. This versatile mineral finds application in compound fertilizer manufacturing, animal feed formulations, industrial processes, de-icing preparations, and as a regenerant for water softeners. The company further broadens its portfolio by providing nitrogen-based crop nutrients, supplemental animal feed ingredients, and a range of supporting services. It also actively engages in the procurement and resale of phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products. Mosaic's products reach a wide array of customers, including major wholesale distributors, extensive retail chains, agricultural cooperatives, individual farmers, independent retailers, and large national accounts. Incorporated in 2004, The Mosaic Company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

CEO
Bruce Bodine Jr.
Headquarters
Tampa, FL
Employees
13,249
IPO
1988-01-26
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.