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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

ADM
NYSEConsumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm ProductsCIK 0000007084adm.comAbout ADM
Last close · Oct 16, 202682.61−0.32 (−0.39%)
Market cap$39.8B
Model value · P/E · peers
49.08
Archer Daniels Midland closed at $82.61 — overvalued by 68% vs model.
42.71the model's range62.05

P/E · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y returned no positive value. From its peers' median P/E.

Other models
10.81 – 137.19
Wall St. target
79.00 5% above
Above model, 1y
8 of 15 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.51%
Past 2 years
low 2.35%high 4.81%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.47Aug ’21$1.57Aug ’22$1.75Aug ’23$1.95Aug ’24$2.03Aug ’25$2.07TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
23.5%
Raised
42+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
7.1% a year
Last change
+2.0% · Feb 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.52, paid Sep 9, 2026

Research on ADM

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Revenue declining (~-1% recent)Thin margins (4.3% net margin)Pays dividendsStrong FCF yield (10.6%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
37.0×
EV / EBITDA
49.8×
FCF yield
10.5%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.51%
Beta
0.63
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.86%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-12Coker Palmer · target75.00
08-05Morgan Stanley · “Equal Weight” from “Underweight”upgrade
08-05Morgan Stanley · target79.00
08-05Barclays · target90.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists ADM as a comparable

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just ADM. No account.

About Archer Daniels Midland

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services. The company's product portfolio is incredibly diverse, serving the food, animal feed, energy, and industrial sectors. Offerings include a comprehensive range of vegetable oils—from crude and partially refined versions (utilized in biodiesel production and industrial applications like chemicals and paints) to salad oils, margarine, and shortening—as well as protein meals. ADM also manufactures a broad selection of sweeteners (such as syrup, glucose, and dextrose), corn and wheat starches, wheat flour, various alcohols (including ethyl alcohol and ethanol), citric acids, corn gluten feed and meal, and distillers' grains. Additionally, it processes specific agricultural products like peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp. Furthermore, ADM develops and supplies an extensive suite of specialized ingredients and solutions for nutrition and health. This segment features natural flavors, sophisticated flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fibers, polyols, hydrocolloids, and an advanced line of natural health and nutrition products, encompassing probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts. They also provide edible beans, formulated animal feeds, animal health and nutrition products, and offer contract and private label manufacturing for pet treats and foods. Beyond its core commodity and ingredient businesses, ADM functions as a futures commission merchant, delivering commodity brokerage services. It also manages cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses and allocates cash as security for certain insurance agreements. Established in 1902, the company's corporate headquarters are located in Chicago, Illinois.

CEO
Juan Ricardo Luciano
Headquarters
Chicago, IL
Employees
41,147
IPO
1980-03-17
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.