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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

EXPD
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsCIK 0000746515expeditors.comAbout EXPD
Last close · Oct 16, 2026195.91−2.73 (−1.37%)
Market cap$25.5B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
109.13
Expeditors International closed at $195.91 — overvalued by 80% vs model.
82.08the model's range177.24

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
26.30 – 145.73
Wall St. target
190.00 3% above
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Semi-Annual · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.81%
Past 2 years
low 0.80%high 1.42%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.10May ’21$1.25May ’22$1.36May ’23$1.42Jun ’24$1.50Jun ’25$1.58TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
21.8%
Raised
29 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
7.5% a year
Last change
+5.2% · Jun 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.81, paid Jun 15, 2026

Research on EXPD

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~9% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
32.9×
EV / EBITDA
21.0×
FCF yield
3.6%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.81%
Beta
1.06
Cost of capital (WACC)
9.41%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-08Stifel Nicolaus · target190.00
10-02UBS · target220.00
10-01Robert W. Baird · target200.00
08-05JP Morgan · “Neutral” from “Underweight”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

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About Expeditors International

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. functions as a prominent global logistics and supply chain management enterprise. With a vast operational footprint spanning the Americas, North and South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India, the company delivers an extensive portfolio of services to its clients. Their core transportation offerings include comprehensive air freight solutions, encompassing both consolidation and forwarding, alongside diverse ocean freight services ranging from consolidated cargo to direct vessel bookings, complemented by efficient order management. Beyond mere transport, Expeditors provides crucial ancillary services such as customs brokerage and clearance, intra-continental ground delivery, and warehousing and distribution. The company's advanced supply chain capabilities feature meticulous purchase order oversight, vendor consolidation, guaranteed time-critical transportation, temperature-controlled shipping environments, cargo insurance, and sophisticated cargo monitoring and tracking systems. Moreover, they offer strategic advisory services for supply chain optimization, trade compliance, general business consulting, and enhanced cargo security protocols. Expeditors frequently acts as a freight consolidator or an authorized agent for airlines facilitating shipments. Their support infrastructure further includes the detailed preparation of all required shipping and customs documentation, expert packing and crating services, arrangement of insurance, negotiation of letters of credit, and ensuring full compliance with local export regulations. Serving a broad spectrum of industries, their client base primarily consists of retailing, wholesaling, electronics, technology, and various industrial and manufacturing companies. Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. was founded in 1979 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Daniel R. Wall
Headquarters
Bellevue, WA
Employees
19,800
IPO
1984-09-26
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.