Smurfit Westrock plc — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersCIK 0002005951smurfitwestrock.comAbout SW

Last close · Oct 16, 202641.16−0.08 (−0.19%)

Market cap$21.6B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

45.09

Smurfit Westrock closed at $41.16 — undervalued by 9% vs model.

18.75the model's range161.57

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

19.76 – 133.66

Wall St. target

58.00 29% below

Below model, 1y

19 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $41.16 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused18.75 – 161.5745.099% undervalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y22.36 – 165.0948.9916% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y91.31 – 183.50133.6669% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y78.22 – 184.26123.6567% undervalued P/E · peers23.55 – 58.6532.8525% overvalued P/E · own history18.27 – 75.4029.4640% overvalued PEG—53.8324% undervalued EV/EBITDA · peers62.59 – 181.74104.4361% undervalued EV/Revenue · peers40.28 – 70.3160.1432% undervalued Earnings power value12.18 – 31.3119.76108% overvalued Dividend discount31.66 – 66.4545.399% undervalued Wall St. consensus target—58.0029% below Cost of capital (WACC)—7.25%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

4.34%

#46 · Highest dividend yield

Past 2 years

low 3.00%high 8.04%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 75.0%
Raised: 1 years in a row
Growth, 3 yrs: -13.2% a year
Last change: +5.0% · Feb 2026

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.4523, paid Sep 10, 2026

Research on SW

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical

High revenue growth (~61% recent)Thin margins (2.2% net margin)Strong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (5.6%)

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies

P/E

30.9×

EV / EBITDA

7.9×

FCF yield

5.6%

Dividend yield, TTM

4.34%

Beta

0.93

Cost of capital (WACC)

7.25%

On the lists: #46 Highest dividend yield

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Sarah KettererCauseway Capital Management LLC$695.7M Harry BurnSound Shore Management Inc$84.9M SorosSoros Fund Management LLC$70.0M BridgewaterBridgewater Associates, LP$21.8M

All 5 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-16RBC Capital · target55.00

08-27Morgan Stanley · target58.00

08-14Nomura · target170.00

10-07Wells Fargo · “Overweight” from “Equal Weight”upgrade

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

09-10Form 4 · ASMURFIT ANTHONY P J · 486 sh@ 0.00 09-10Form 4 · ASMURFIT ANTHONY P J · 910 sh@ 0.00 09-10Form 4 · APage Irene · 23 sh@ 0.00 09-10Form 4 · APage Irene · 152 sh@ 0.00 09-10Form 4 · AMayer Saverio · 119 sh@ 0.00 07-3110-QQuarterly report

53 filings · 39 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

IPInternational Paper PKGPackaging Corporation of America AMCRAmcor BALLBall AVYAvery Dennison

1 more company lists SW as a comparable

WYWeyerhaeuser

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One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just SW. No account.

About Smurfit Westrock

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

CEO: Anthony Paul J. Smurfit
Headquarters: Dublin, DU
Employees: 97,000
IPO: 2008-06-17

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.