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Ball Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

BALL
NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersCIK 0000009389ball.comAbout BALL
Last close · Oct 16, 202663.20+0.40 (+0.64%)
Market cap$16.7B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
80.50
Ball closed at $63.20 — undervalued by 21% vs model.
43.38the model's range255.29

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
17.27 – 88.99
Wall St. target
72.50 13% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.27%
Past 2 years
low 1.18%high 1.78%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.65Aug ’21$0.80Aug ’22$0.80Aug ’23$0.80Sep ’24$0.80Sep ’25$0.80TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
27.9%
Raised
—
Growth, 5 yrs
4.2% a year
Last change
+33.3% · Aug 2021
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.20, paid Sep 15, 2026

Research on BALL

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Revenue declining (~-3% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
19.2×
EV / EBITDA
10.8×
FCF yield
4.5%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.27%
Beta
0.96
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.61%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-13RBC Capital · target73.00
10-05UBS · target63.00
09-18JP Morgan · “Overweight” from “Neutral”upgrade
08-05JP Morgan · “Neutral” from “Overweight”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just BALL. No account.

About Ball

Ball Corporation serves as a global provider of aluminum packaging solutions for a broad spectrum of industries, including beverages, personal care items, and household goods. Its extensive reach covers the United States, Brazil, and numerous international markets. The company's operations are strategically divided into four primary business segments: Beverage Packaging for North and Central America; Beverage Packaging for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Beverage Packaging for South America; and its dedicated Aerospace division. Within its packaging enterprise, Ball is a key manufacturer and supplier of aluminum beverage containers, catering to producers of carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and other liquid products. Its product line also encompasses extruded aluminum aerosol containers, innovative reclosable aluminum bottles, aluminum cups, and aluminum slugs. Beyond packaging, Ball Corporation maintains a substantial presence in the aerospace sector. Here, it develops advanced spacecraft, intricate sensors and instruments, sophisticated radio frequency systems, and other cutting-edge technologies. These specialized offerings support civil, commercial, and national security aerospace initiatives. Its aerospace portfolio includes defense hardware, tactical antenna and video solutions, space hardware for both operational and civilian applications, and comprehensive systems engineering services. The company also undertakes the design, production, and rigorous testing of satellites, remote sensing devices, and associated ground control hardware and software, in addition to providing launch vehicle integration and satellite operational support. Furthermore, Ball supplies highly specialized components to government agencies and their prime contractors, such as target identification, warning, and attitude control systems; cryogenic systems with integrated sensor cooling devices; star trackers; and fast-steering mirrors. Established in 1880, Ball Corporation's corporate headquarters are located in Westminster, Colorado.

CEO
Ronald J. Lewis
Headquarters
Westminster, CO
Employees
16,000
IPO
1972-07-13
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.