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Packaging Corporation of America — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

PKG
NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersCIK 0000075677packagingcorp.comAbout PKG
Last close · Oct 16, 2026236.00+3.42 (+1.47%)
Market cap$21.0B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
172.82
Packaging Corporation of America closed at $236.00 — overvalued by 37% vs model.
100.86the model's range428.49

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
72.26 – 210.13
Wall St. target
281.50 16% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.33%
Past 2 years
low 2.01%high 2.84%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$4.00Sep ’21$4.50Sep ’22$5.00Sep ’23$5.00Sep ’24$5.00Sep ’25$5.50TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
61.7%
Raised
—
Growth, 5 yrs
6.6% a year
Last change
+20.0% · Jun 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.50, paid Oct 15, 2026

Research on PKG

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~7% recent)Moderate margins (9% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
27.5×
EV / EBITDA
13.9×
FCF yield
3.4%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.33%
Beta
0.77
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.84%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-05UBS · target289.00
08-13UBS · target292.00
08-12Seaport Global · target272.00
07-09Wells Fargo · “Equal Weight” from “Overweight”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists PKG as a comparable

The weekly

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About Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a U.S.-based enterprise specializing in the production and sale of containerboard and corrugated packaging materials. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Packaging and Paper. The Packaging division offers an extensive array of containerboard and corrugated solutions. These encompass conventional shipping containers designed for safeguarding and transporting manufactured goods, vibrant multi-color boxes and point-of-sale displays aimed at enhancing product merchandising in retail environments, and honeycomb protective packaging. This segment also provides specialized packaging for perishable goods like meat and fresh produce, processed foods, beverages, and a broad spectrum of other industrial and consumer products. Its corrugated offerings reach customers through a multi-channel approach, utilizing a dedicated direct sales and marketing team, independent brokers, and various distribution partners. Meanwhile, the Paper segment focuses on manufacturing and distributing a range of commodity and specialty papers. This includes communication papers, such as standard cut-size office paper, along with specialized printing and converting papers. Sales of its white paper products are managed directly by its internal sales and marketing organization. Tracing its origins back to 1867, Packaging Corporation of America maintains its corporate headquarters in Lake Forest, Illinois.

CEO
Mark W. Kowlzan
Headquarters
Lake Forest, IL
Employees
16,800
IPO
2000-01-28
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.