SweetValueLab
Write for us

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

SPCX
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseCIK 0001181412spacex.comAbout SPCX
Last close · Oct 16, 2026146.03−2.59 (−1.74%)
Market cap$2.5T
Model value · EV/Revenue · peers
287.46
Space Exploration Technologies closed at $146.03 — undervalued by 49% vs model.
275.59the model's range298.20

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. From its peers' median EV/Revenue.

Other models
—
Wall St. target
212.00 31% below
Below model, 1y
5 of 8 days

Price and model value

Embed this card

SPCX's close against its model value, as a 420×168 card for your own page. It updates nightly with this site and links back here.

Free to embed; keep the attribution link.
Loading chart…
What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $146.03 · as of Oct 17, 2026

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Research on SPCX

No posts on SPCX yet.
Studied SPCX from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about SPCX →

How it is valued

Valued asHigh growth
High revenue growth (~34% recent)Currently unprofitableHighly cyclical earningsNegative free cash flow
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for high-growth companies
Price / sales
22.9×
Revenue growth
33.2%
Gross margin
49.4%
Operating margin
-13.9%
FCF margin
-74.7%
EV / EBITDA
589×
On the lists: #6 Largest companies
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16Evercore ISI · target275.00
10-12Pivotal Research · target230.00
10-08Barclays · target254.00
08-07Argus Research · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just SPCX. No account.

About Space Exploration Technologies

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, and launches rockets and spacecraft, and provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, and Canada. The company offers launch services for satellites, cargo, and crew to destinations such as low Earth orbit, the International Space Station, the Moon, and Mars, using vehicles, including Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship. It provides dedicated rideshare missions for small satellites, manufactures reusable rockets and spacecraft, such as Dragon and Starship, and conducts suborbital and orbital flight tests. The company supplies broadband internet connectivity through the Starlink satellite network for consumer and commercial use, and offers Starshield, a satellite-based solution for government users focused on sensing, communications, and satellite bus services. It supports scientific research opportunities and provides on-orbit research and travel services for private and government customers, and collaborates with government agencies for national security space launch missions. The company serves government agencies, national security organizations, commercial satellite operators, research institutions, and private spaceflight clients, supporting scientific research and commercial payload missions for professional and industrial clients in the aerospace and telecommunications sectors. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Starbase, Texas.

CEO
Elon Reeve Musk
Headquarters
Starbase, TX
Employees
22,000
IPO
2026-06-12
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.