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Lockheed Martin Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

LMT
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseCIK 0000936468lockheedmartin.comAbout LMT
Last close · Oct 16, 2026552.09+19.45 (+3.65%)
Market cap$127.4B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
484.10
Lockheed Martin closed at $552.09 — overvalued by 14% vs model.
248.82the model's range1,093.10

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
279.94 – 680.22
Wall St. target
625.00 12% below
Above model, 1y
10 of 21 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.50%
Past 2 years
low 1.99%high 3.18%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$10.40Aug ’21$11.20Aug ’22$12.00Aug ’23$12.60Sep ’24$13.20Sep ’25$13.80TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
45.3%
Raised
23 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
5.8% a year
Last change
+4.5% · Dec 2025
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $3.45, paid Sep 25, 2026

Research on LMT

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~5% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 3.2x)Strong FCF yield (5.4%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
25.7×
EV / EBITDA
18.7×
FCF yield
5.4%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.50%
Beta
0.10
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.38%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16UBS · target653.00
10-14Vertical Research · target600.00
10-14Bernstein · target564.00
09-08UBS · “Buy” from “Neutral”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just LMT. No account.

About Lockheed Martin

Lockheed Martin Corporation stands as a prominent global security and aerospace enterprise, specializing in the comprehensive lifecycle of advanced technological systems. Its expertise spans the research, design, development, manufacturing, integration, and ongoing sustainment of cutting-edge products and services across the world. The company's diverse operations are structured into four key segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. The Aeronautics division is responsible for creating and producing leading-edge combat and air mobility aircraft, alongside unmanned aerial vehicles and their related innovations. The Missiles and Fire Control segment delivers sophisticated air and missile defense systems; tactical and precision air-to-ground weapon systems; comprehensive logistics; advanced fire control; mission operations, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; both crewed and uncrewed ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. Within the Rotary and Mission Systems segment, the portfolio includes military and commercial helicopters, naval surface ships, land and sea-based missile defense systems, advanced radar technologies, maritime and airborne mission and combat systems, intricate command and control solutions, cybersecurity services, and simulation and training platforms. The Space division focuses on satellites, space transportation systems, strategic, advanced strike, and defensive missile systems, as well as classified systems and services vital for national security. This segment further enhances situational awareness through network enablement, integrating space and ground-based systems to empower customers in gathering, analyzing, and securely distributing crucial intelligence data. Lockheed Martin primarily serves the United States government, alongside fulfilling foreign military sales facilitated through U.S. government contracts. Established in 1912, the corporation maintains its headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland.

CEO
James D. Taiclet Jr.
Headquarters
Bethesda, MD
Employees
123,000
IPO
1977-01-03
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.