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Rocket Lab USA, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

RKLB
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseCIK 0001819994rocketlabcorp.comAbout RKLB
Last close · Oct 16, 202650.84−4.41 (−7.98%)
Market cap$30.4B
Model value · EV/Revenue · peers
27.84
Rocket Lab closed at $50.84 — overvalued by 83% vs model.
25.73the model's range122.44

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. From its peers' median EV/Revenue.

Other models
—
Wall St. target
103.50 51% below
Above model, 1y
81 of 81 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $50.84 · as of Oct 18, 2026

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

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How it is valued

Valued asHigh growth
High revenue growth (~57% recent)Currently unprofitableModerately volatile earningsNegative free cash flow
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for high-growth companies
Price / sales
44.8×
Revenue growth
38.0%
Gross margin
34.4%
Operating margin
-38.0%
FCF margin
-53.5%
EV / EBITDA
-234.4×
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16Needham · target120.00
10-15KeyBanc · target100.00
10-08Barclays · target85.00
07-27KGI Securities · “Outperform” from “Neutral”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

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About Rocket Lab

Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets. Key products include the highly successful Electron small orbital launch vehicle and the versatile Photon satellite platforms, both of which they design, manufacture, and market. Furthermore, the company is actively developing the larger Neutron launch vehicle, capable of carrying 8-ton payloads. Beyond manufacturing, they also conduct remote launch operations and craft specialized components and subsystems for both their Photon spacecraft family and the broader commercial spacecraft market. Their diverse clientele spans commercial enterprises, major aerospace contractors, and governmental entities.

CEO
Sir Peter Beck
Headquarters
Long Beach, CA
Employees
2,600
IPO
2020-11-24
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.