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The Hershey Company — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

HSY
NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersCIK 0000047111thehersheycompany.comAbout HSY
Last close · Oct 16, 2026170.83+2.15 (+1.27%)
Market cap$34.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
139.87
Hershey closed at $170.83 — overvalued by 22% vs model.
72.68the model's range319.12

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
76.31 – 188.60
Wall St. target
190.00 10% below
Above model, 1y
16 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
3.35%
Past 2 years
low 2.35%high 3.79%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$3.31Aug ’21$3.74Aug ’22$4.30Aug ’23$5.30Aug ’24$5.48Aug ’25$5.73TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
59.5%
Raised
—
Growth, 5 yrs
11.6% a year
Last change
+6.0% · Feb 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.452, paid Sep 15, 2026

Research on HSY

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~2% recent)Moderate margins (8% net margin)Strong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (5.3%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
—
EV / EBITDA
19.9×
FCF yield
5.0%
Dividend yield, TTM
3.35%
Beta
0.09
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.29%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16Barclays · target178.00
10-15UBS · target178.00
10-14Jefferies · target178.00
05-27Evercore ISI Group · “Outperform” from “In Line”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just HSY. No account.

About Hershey

The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, serves as a key manufacturer and distributor of both sweet confections and general household pantry items. Its market reach extends across the United States and globally. The enterprise strategically divides its operations into three main business segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and an International division. Its extensive product catalog features a wide array of offerings. This includes various chocolate and non-chocolate candies, as well as refreshing chewing gums and mints. Beyond traditional treats, Hershey also supplies pantry essentials such as baking ingredients, dessert toppings, a range of beverages, and sundae syrups. Furthermore, their snack collection encompasses diverse items like spreads, meat snacks, various bars and snack bites, popcorn, and protein bars. The company markets its broad product line under numerous iconic brand names. Its extensive brand portfolio includes household names such as Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Kit Kat, Twizzlers, York, and Ice Breakers, alongside other popular confectionery brands like Almond Joy, Cadbury, Heath, Payday, Rolo, and Whoppers. The snack segment features well-known names like SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Paqui, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar, complemented by international offerings such as Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit. Hershey distributes its merchandise through a comprehensive network of channels. These include wholesale distributors, major grocery store chains, large-scale retailers, pharmacies, vending machine operators, warehouse clubs, convenience stores, discount stores, concession stands, and department stores. Established in 1894, The Hershey Company maintains its corporate headquarters in Hershey, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Kirk C. Tanner
Headquarters
Hershey, PA
Employees
18,573
IPO
1980-03-17
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.