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Philip Morris International Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

PM
NYSEConsumer DefensiveTobaccoCIK 0001413329pmi.comAbout PM
Last close · Oct 16, 2026205.20+5.30 (+2.65%)
Market cap$319.8B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
172.32
Philip Morris closed at $205.20 — overvalued by 19% vs model.
97.05the model's range545.45

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
36.98 – 187.82
Wall St. target
215.00 5% below
Above model, 1y
17 of 21 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.93%
Past 2 years
low 2.89%high 4.52%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$4.85Sep ’21$5.02Sep ’22$5.11Sep ’23$5.25Sep ’24$5.52Oct ’25$6.01TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
80.9%
Raised
13 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
4.4% a year
Last change
+8.8% · Oct 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.60, paid Oct 26, 2026

Research on PM

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~8% recent)High profitability (28% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 5.0x)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
28.3×
EV / EBITDA
20.8×
FCF yield
3.3%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.93%
Beta
0.36
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.01%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-23UBS · target192.00
07-29Barclays · target225.00
07-24BTIG · target221.00
01-20Jefferies · “Hold” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
Side by side:vs MO

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just PM. No account.

About Philip Morris

Philip Morris International Inc. functions as a prominent tobacco enterprise, actively working toward a smoke-free future. The company is strategically diversifying its long-term product range to incorporate items beyond traditional tobacco and nicotine. Its primary business involves both conventional cigarettes and an expanding array of smoke-free alternatives, such as innovative heat-not-burn devices, vapor products, and oral nicotine solutions. These offerings are distributed in markets worldwide, with the exception of the United States. The smoke-free portfolio includes brands like HEETS (encompassing Creations, Dimensions, Marlboro variants), Parliament HeatSticks, and TEREA, in addition to KT&G-licensed brands Fiit and Miix. For conventional cigarettes, the company sells internationally recognized brands such as Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris. Regionally, it also owns major cigarette brands like Dji Sam Soe, Sampoerna A, and Sampoerna U in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. PMI's smoke-free innovations are currently available across 71 global markets. Established in 1987, Philip Morris International Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York.

CEO
Jacek Olczak
Headquarters
Stamford, CT
Employees
84,900
IPO
2008-03-17
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.