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Carvana Co. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CVNA
NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - DealershipsCIK 0001690820carvana.comAbout CVNA
Last close · Oct 16, 202658.83−1.79 (−2.95%)
Market cap$64.5B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
21.46
Carvana closed at $58.83 — overvalued by 174% vs model.
15.40the model's range33.61

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a high-growth company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
2.39 – 241.84
Wall St. target
82.00 28% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $58.83 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a high-growth company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 174% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Research on CVNA

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How it is valued

Valued asHigh growth
High revenue growth (~37% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for high-growth companies
Price / sales
2.0×
Revenue growth
48.6%
Gross margin
20.6%
Operating margin
9.3%
FCF margin
4.4%
EV / EBITDA
-854.5×
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Morgan Stanley · target88.00
10-06Barclays · target80.00
10-06Stephens · target83.00
04-06B of A Securities · “Neutral” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CVNA. No account.

About Carvana

Carvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States. Their comprehensive services span the entire customer journey, including sourcing and reconditioning automobiles, providing an intuitive online browsing and transaction experience, offering financing solutions, and supplying complementary products. The company also manages its own specialized logistics network for distinctive delivery and pickup options, alongside providing extensive post-sale support. Furthermore, Carvana operates various vehicle auction sites. This company was established in 2012 and maintains its headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.

CEO
Ernest C. Garcia
Headquarters
Tempe, AZ
Employees
23,100
IPO
2017-04-28
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.