Johnson Controls International plc — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

JCI

NYSEBasic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsCIK 0000833444johnsoncontrols.comAbout JCI

Last close · Oct 16, 2026145.47−2.16 (−1.46%)

Market cap$88.1B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

52.93

Johnson Controls closed at $145.47 — overvalued by 175% vs model.

33.12the model's range106.94

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

8.30 – 148.57

Wall St. target

180.00 19% below

Above model, 1y

20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $145.47 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused33.12 – 106.9452.93175% overvalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y38.82 – 116.1059.80143% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y52.84 – 103.2876.0491% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y53.86 – 112.3779.0684% overvalued P/E · peers120.63 – 165.01135.837% overvalued P/E · own history122.61 – 156.72141.473% overvalued PEG—71.59103% overvalued EV/EBITDA · peers66.38 – 119.3773.8197% overvalued EV/Revenue · peers120.01 – 216.61148.572% undervalued Earnings power value5.18 – 12.618.301653% overvalued Dividend discount23.40 – 50.6432.92342% overvalued Wall St. consensus target—180.0019% below Cost of capital (WACC)—9.45%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 175% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

1.10%

Past 2 years

low 1.01%high 2.22%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 46.0%
Raised: 5 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs: 8.4% a year
Last change: +8.1% · Sep 2025

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.40, paid Oct 16, 2026

Research on JCI

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable

Revenue declining (~-6% recent)Moderate margins (14% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025

P/E

28.9×

EV / EBITDA

31.0×

FCF yield

1.0%

Dividend yield, TTM

1.10%

Beta

1.28

Cost of capital (WACC)

9.45%

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Dodge & CoxDodge & Cox$8.1B Viking GlobalViking Global Investors LP$614.1M Christopher DavisDavis Selected Advisers$20.7M Bill NygrenHarris Associates L P$1.1M

All 4 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-15Mizuho Securities · target165.00

09-24Wells Fargo · target186.00

09-02Morgan Stanley · target180.00

07-24Jefferies · “Hold” from “Buy”downgrade

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

09-308-K · 5.02Departure/Election of Directors or Officers 08-19Form 4 · SCohade Pierre E · 3,300 sh@ 147.79 08-04Form 4 · SSchlitz Lei Zhang · 20,917 sh@ 152.98 08-04Form 4 · SSchlitz Lei Zhang · 2,500 sh@ 153.79 08-02Form 4 · FVandiepenbeeck Marc · 19,760 sh@ 146.66 08-02Form 4 · FSchlitz Lei Zhang · 18,625 sh@ 146.66

70 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

TTTrane Technologies CARRCarrier Global LIILennox International HONHoneywell OTISOtis Worldwide EMREmerson Electric ALLEAllegion VRTVertiv

1 more company lists JCI as a comparable

ETNEaton

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One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just JCI. No account.

About Johnson Controls

Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company designs, manufactures, sells, installs, and services heating, ventilating, air conditioning, controls, building management, refrigeration, integrated electronic security, integrated fire detection and suppression systems, and digital solutions. It also provides energy solutions and technical services, including inspection, scheduled maintenance, and repair and replacement of mechanical and control systems, as well as data-driven building solutions. It sells its products and services to commercial, residential security, institutional, industrial, data center, marine, and governmental customers. Johnson Controls International plc was incorporated in 1885 and is based in Cork, Ireland.

CEO: Joakim Weidemanis
Headquarters: Cork, CK
Employees: 87,000
IPO: 1987-09-28

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.