Carrier Global Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CARR

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryCIK 0001783180carrier.comAbout CARR

Last close · Oct 16, 202655.00+0.04 (+0.07%)

Market cap$45.3B

Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y

36.45

Carrier Global closed at $55.00 — overvalued by 51% vs model.

21.60the model's range82.06

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models

16.20 – 116.97

Wall St. target

65.50 16% below

Above model, 1y

9 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $55.00 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused21.60 – 82.0636.4551% overvalued DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y24.92 – 86.1040.1437% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y49.41 – 91.6268.8420% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y45.83 – 94.4666.7918% undervalued P/E · peers60.32 – 76.4761.5411% undervalued P/E · own history26.63 – 82.1751.367% overvalued PEG—65.5116% undervalued EV/EBITDA · peers66.37 – 121.6492.5741% undervalued EV/Revenue · peers97.11 – 166.09116.9753% undervalued Earnings power value13.55 – 23.9217.86208% overvalued Dividend discount11.50 – 22.9916.20240% overvalued Wall St. consensus target—65.5016% below Cost of capital (WACC)—8.87%—

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026

Yield, trailing 12 months

1.72%

Past 2 years

low 0.91%high 1.79%

Dividends per share, a year at a time

Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025: 36.4%
Raised: 5+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs: 16.5% a year
Last change: +6.7% · Jan 2026

Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.24, paid Aug 10, 2026

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable

Revenue declining (~-1% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025

P/E

32.0×

EV / EBITDA

15.8×

FCF yield

3.7%

Dividend yield, TTM

1.72%

Beta

1.29

Cost of capital (WACC)

8.87%

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

Dodge & CoxDodge & Cox$2.0B Sarah KettererCauseway Capital Management LLC$159.8M Thomas GaynerMarkel Group Inc.$17.2M Mairs & PowerMairs & Power Inc$204,280

All 4 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-15Mizuho Securities · target70.00

10-14Goldman Sachs · “Neutral” from “Buy”downgrade

10-14Goldman Sachs · target61.00

10-07Bernstein · target64.00

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

10-01Form 4 · MYildiz Beril · 1,065 sh@ 0.00 10-01Form 4 · FYildiz Beril · 260 sh@ 55.22 10-01Form 4 · MYildiz Beril · 1,065 sh@ 0.00 07-2810-QQuarterly report 07-288-K · 2.02Results of Operations (Earnings)07-28S-3ASRShelf registration (automatic)

69 filings · 40 insider transactions

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

TTTrane Technologies LIILennox International JCIJohnson Controls AOSA. O. Smith

2 more companies list CARR as a comparable

OTISOtis Worldwide VRTVertiv

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CARR. No account.

About Carrier Global

Carrier Global Corporation is a worldwide provider of advanced technological solutions covering heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire safety, security, and intelligent building automation. Its operations are structured across three primary business segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment is dedicated to supplying products, controls, services, and complete solutions tailored to the heating, cooling, and ventilation requirements of both residential and commercial clients. Offerings in this area include air conditioning units, heating systems, various control mechanisms, aftermarket components, as well as post-installation repair, maintenance services, and building automation capabilities. The Refrigeration segment focuses on providing transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services. This includes digital solutions for diverse applications such as trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal transport, food retail, and warehouse cooling. Additionally, it offers commercial refrigeration solutions like display cabinets, freezers, integrated systems, and their corresponding controls. The Fire & Security segment delivers a comprehensive suite of technologies for residential, commercial, and industrial environments. This encompasses detection systems for fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide; portable fire extinguishers; advanced fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its service portfolio further extends to auditing, design, installation, system integration, ongoing maintenance, repair, and monitoring services. The company markets its extensive product range under numerous brands, including Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, Supra, Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, Riello, Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech. Established in 2019, Carrier Global Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

CEO: David L. Gitlin
Headquarters: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Employees: 47,000
IPO: 2020-03-19

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.