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Cisco Systems, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CSCO
NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentCIK 0000858877cisco.comAbout CSCO
Last close · Oct 16, 2026107.39−2.46 (−2.24%)
Market cap$423.4B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
66.42
Cisco closed at $107.39 — overvalued by 62% vs model.
43.84the model's range136.19

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
28.12 – 171.02
Wall St. target
135.00 20% below
Above model, 1y
19 of 22 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.56%
Past 2 years
low 1.27%high 3.52%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.47Oct ’21$1.51Oct ’22$1.55Oct ’23$1.59Oct ’24$1.63Oct ’25$1.67TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
51.3%
Raised
14+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
2.6% a year
Last change
+2.4% · Apr 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.42, paid Oct 21, 2026

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~8% recent)High profitability (21% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
32.2×
EV / EBITDA
22.3×
FCF yield
3.0%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.56%
Beta
0.98
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.85%
On the lists: #26 Largest companies
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-30Bernstein · target110.00
09-22Piper Sandler · target125.00
09-01Deutsche Bank · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
08-31Deutsche Bank · target135.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CSCO. No account.

About Cisco

Cisco Systems, Inc. is a leading global technology company focused on designing, producing, and marketing Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking equipment, software, and associated products within the communications and information technology industries. The company operates extensively across major regions including the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific, specifically covering Japan and China. Its comprehensive product lineup features switching solutions for both enterprise campuses and data centers. Cisco's enterprise routing segment is crucial for securely and reliably interconnecting public, private, wired, and mobile networks, ensuring vital connectivity across corporate campuses, data centers, and branch offices. Additionally, the company provides a range of wireless products offering seamless indoor and outdoor roaming for voice, video, and data applications. Security forms a significant pillar of its offerings, encompassing network defense, identity and access management, secure access service edge (SASE), alongside threat intelligence, detection, and response capabilities. For collaboration, Cisco delivers the Webex Suite, dedicated devices, contact center platforms, and communication platform-as-a-service (CPaaS). These end-to-end collaboration solutions are adaptable, available in cloud, on-premise, or hybrid environments, facilitating clients' migration to cloud-based systems. Moreover, their observability suite provides network assurance, monitoring, and analytics. Beyond its product portfolio, Cisco offers extensive customer support and services, including technical assistance, advanced professional services, and advisory consulting. The company serves a broad clientele, from small and large businesses to public institutions, governmental agencies, and service providers. Products and services are distributed directly by Cisco, as well as through a diverse network of system integrators, service providers, other resellers, and distributors. Cisco Systems, Inc. also engages in strategic collaborations with other industry players. Founded in 1984, the company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Charles H. Robbins
Headquarters
San Jose, CA
Employees
82,400
IPO
1990-02-16
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.