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Ciena Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CIEN
NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentCIK 0000936395ciena.comAbout CIEN
Last close · Oct 16, 2026332.73−23.79 (−6.67%)
Market cap$47.2B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
21.05
Ciena closed at $332.73 — overvalued by 1480% vs model.
10.67the model's range46.47

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
9.21 – 256.00
Wall St. target
525.00 37% below
Above model, 1y
78 of 78 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $332.73 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 1480% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Research on CIEN

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~4% recent)Thin margins (2.6% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
391×
EV / EBITDA
123×
FCF yield
1.4%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
1.29
Cost of capital (WACC)
9.86%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-30Bernstein · target440.00
09-21Evercore ISI Group · “Outperform” from “In Line”upgrade
09-21Evercore ISI · target550.00
09-17Barclays · target548.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CIEN. No account.

About Ciena

Ciena Corporation is a global technology company focused on telecommunications infrastructure. It delivers integrated solutions – including specialized hardware, software applications, and professional services – designed to facilitate the efficient transmission, routing, switching, aggregation, delivery, and overall management of video, data, and voice traffic across communication networks worldwide. Within its Networking Platforms division, Ciena develops and supplies advanced hardware and integrated solutions. These products are specifically engineered to optimize the convergence of various optical transport methods (like coherent optical transport and optical transport network switching) with packet switching, enabling high-performance data handling. The product portfolio spans a range of packet-optical platforms (e.g., the 6500, 5400, and Z-Series), reconfigurable switching systems (such as the 5430), Waveserver interconnect systems, and dedicated switches for service delivery and aggregation (including the 3000 and 5000 families). This segment also provides the essential operating system software and advanced features embedded within its hardware offerings. Ciena's Blue Planet Automation Software and Services arm is dedicated to intelligent network automation. It offers solutions for orchestrating services across multiple network domains, maintaining precise network inventory, optimizing data routes, coordinating virtualized network functions (NFV), and delivering insightful analytics, alongside related support. The Platform Software and Services segment provides unified management platforms, exemplified by its OneControl system, as well as other software tools for comprehensive network planning, operational control, and ongoing oversight. Finally, the Global Services segment delivers end-to-end client support. This includes strategic consulting, detailed network architecture design, expert installation and deployment, ongoing maintenance, and comprehensive training programs. The company distributes its cutting-edge products and services to network operators through both direct sales forces and indirect channel partners. Established in 1992, Ciena Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Hanover, Maryland.

CEO
Gary Smith
Headquarters
Fulton, MD
Employees
8,989
IPO
1997-02-07
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.