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Caterpillar Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CAT
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachineryCIK 0000018230caterpillar.comAbout CAT
Last close · Oct 16, 2026730.76−4.88 (−0.66%)
Market cap$335.9B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
261.24
Caterpillar closed at $730.76 — overvalued by 180% vs model.
176.23the model's range455.16

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
55.53 – 727.20
Wall St. target
925.00 21% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.84%
Past 2 years
low 0.57%high 2.02%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$4.20Jul ’21$4.53Jul ’22$4.90Jul ’23$5.31Jul ’24$5.74Jul ’25$6.16TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
30.8%
Raised
32 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
8.0% a year
Last change
+7.9% · Jul 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.63, paid Aug 19, 2026

Research on CAT

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~0% recent)Moderate margins (13% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
38.8×
EV / EBITDA
24.4×
FCF yield
2.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.84%
Beta
1.58
Cost of capital (WACC)
10.16%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-14Bernstein · target749.00
10-05Truist Financial · target1,100.00
09-10Freedom Broker · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
09-10Needham · target980.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
3 more companies list CAT as a comparable
Side by side:vs DE

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CAT. No account.

About Caterpillar

Caterpillar Inc., a global enterprise founded in 1925 and headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois (having previously operated as Caterpillar Tractor Co. until its rebranding in 1986), is a premier manufacturer and vendor of heavy construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas power units, and industrial gas turbines across the world. The company's extensive offerings are organized into several operational divisions: Construction Industries: This segment delivers a broad spectrum of machinery for construction projects, including asphalt pavers, versatile backhoe and skid steer loaders, various sizes of excavators (from compact to heavy-duty), compactors, road-building equipment like cold planers and motorgraders, pipelayers, site preparation tractors, telehandlers, and utility vehicles, alongside a range of wheel loaders and track-type equipment. Resource Industries: Dedicated to the mining sector, this division supplies powerful equipment such as electric rope and hydraulic shovels, draglines, rotary drills, specialized hard rock vehicles, and a diverse fleet of mining, off-highway, and articulated trucks. It also offers longwall miners, wheel dozers, fleet management systems, autonomous vehicle solutions, crucial machinery components, selected work tools, and comprehensive safety and performance solutions for mining operations. Energy & Transportation: This segment focuses on power generation and propulsion systems. It provides reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated power solutions, industrial turbines and associated services, remanufactured engines and parts, centrifugal gas compressors, and diesel-electric locomotives with related components and services. These products serve critical sectors including marine, oil and gas, industrial applications, and electric power generation. Financial Products: This segment supports customers with a variety of financial services, such as operating and finance leases, installment sale agreements, working capital loans, and wholesale financing schemes. It also offers insurance and risk management products tailored for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. All Other: This encompassing segment is responsible for manufacturing essential consumables and components like filters, fluids, undercarriage parts, and ground engaging tools.

CEO
Joseph E. Creed
Headquarters
Irving, TX
Employees
118,000
IPO
1929-12-02
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.