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Tesla, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

TSLA
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersCIK 0001318605tesla.comAbout TSLA
Last close · Oct 16, 2026354.72−7.72 (−2.13%)
Market cap$1.4T
Sum of the parts · 10-Q Jun 30, 2026Full breakdown ›
$97
Base case, per share
266% overvalued
CaseValuePrice vs it
Bear case$231,429% overvalued
Base case$97266% overvalued
Bull case$54034% undervalued
Price implies
1.9M
robotaxi cars by 2030
Wall St. target
$450 21% below
Weighted 25 / 50 / 25
$189

Price

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Research on TSLA

1 post
Tesla, taken apart: a sum of the parts in three scenarios
Tesla's three filed businesses at their peers' multiples, three unfiled ones as options. Bear $23, base $97, bull $540 a share, against a $364 price.
Allen Yan · · 13 min · 中文
Studied TSLA from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about TSLA →

How it is valued

Valued asHigh growth
Revenue declining (~-1% recent)Decelerated from ~25% 5y CAGRThin margins (4.0% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for high-growth companies
Price / sales
12.1×
Revenue growth
-2.9%
Gross margin
18.0%
Operating margin
4.6%
FCF margin
6.6%
EV / EBITDA
118×
On the lists: #9 Largest companies
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-07UBS · target391.00
10-05HSBC · target157.00
09-16Goldman Sachs · target360.00
06-05JP Morgan · “Neutral” from “Underweight”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
Side by side:vs NVDAvs GM

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just TSLA. No account.

About Tesla

Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network. The company supports these acquisitions with financing and leasing options. Furthermore, it ensures vehicle upkeep through its proprietary service centers and a fleet of mobile technicians, complemented by both standard and extended vehicle warranty programs. The Energy Generation and Storage segment focuses on the development, manufacturing, setup, sale, and rental of solar power systems and energy storage products, along with associated services. This caters to a diverse clientele, spanning residential users, commercial enterprises, industrial entities, and public utilities. Distribution channels include Tesla's online platform, physical stores, galleries, and a network of collaborative partners. The company also offers servicing and repairs for its energy products, including warranty support, and provides multiple financing avenues for those investing in its solar solutions. Founded in 2003, the corporation was initially named Tesla Motors, Inc., before officially rebranding to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Austin, Texas.

CEO
Elon R. Musk
Headquarters
Austin, TX
Employees
134,785
IPO
2010-06-29
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.