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Erie Indemnity Company — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

ERIE
NASDAQFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyCIK 0000922621erieinsurance.comAbout ERIE
Last close · Oct 16, 2026243.71+5.02 (+2.10%)
Market cap$11.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
283.99
Erie Indemnity closed at $243.71 — undervalued by 14% vs model.
184.93the model's range698.57

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
102.61 – 400.28
Wall St. target
—
Below model, 1y
13 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $243.71 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
2.40%
Past 2 years
low 0.92%high 2.74%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$4.14Oct ’21$4.44Oct ’22$4.76Oct ’23$5.10Oct ’24$5.46Oct ’25$5.85TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
44.5%
Raised
30+ years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
7.2% a year
Last change
+7.1% · Jan 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.4625, paid Oct 20, 2026

Research on ERIE

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Moderate growth (~12% recent)Moderate margins (14% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (5.1%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
—
EV / EBITDA
13.9×
FCF yield
5.0%
Dividend yield, TTM
2.40%
Beta
0.33
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.37%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

No analyst actions cached for ERIE.

Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just ERIE. No account.

About Erie Indemnity

Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Timothy G. NeCastro
Headquarters
Erie, PA
Employees
6,667
IPO
1995-10-02
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.