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The Progressive Corporation — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

PGR
NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyCIK 0000080661progressive.comAbout PGR
Last close · Oct 16, 2026218.49+4.74 (+2.22%)
Market cap$127.0B
Model value · P/B · justified
246.49
Progressive closed at $218.49 — undervalued by 11% vs model.
215.68the model's range287.57

P/B · justified leads for an insurer. From the justified price to book.

Other models
112.81 – 386.91
Wall St. target
228.00 4% below
Below model, 1y
18 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
6.36%
#8 · Highest dividend yield
Past 2 years
low 0.43%high 7.30%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.80Dec ’21$0.40Oct ’22$0.40Oct ’23$1.15Oct ’24$4.90Oct ’25$13.90TTM
Dividends / earnings, FY2025
25.4%
Raised
—
Growth, 5 yrs
50.5% a year
Last change
−99.3% · Apr 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.10, paid Oct 9, 2026

Research on PGR

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How it is valued

Valued asInsurer
Moderate growth (~19% recent)Moderate margins (13% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsStrong FCF yield (13.5%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for insurers
Price / book
4.2×
Return on equity
37.3%
P/E
11.4×
Dividend yield, TTM
6.36%
Payout ratio
25.4%
Debt / equity
0.2
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Wells Fargo · target196.00
10-15BMO Capital · target216.00
10-07HSBC · target216.00
08-20Keefe, Bruyette & Woods · “Outperform” from “Market Perform”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
2 more companies list PGR as a comparable

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just PGR. No account.

About Progressive

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications. This segment insures a diverse array of vehicles, including cars, vans, pickup trucks, and dump trucks for small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks for regional freight, expedited shipping, and long-haul transport companies; heavy-duty vehicles like dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used in industries such as construction, logging, and mining; and tow trucks and wreckers for towing and service stations, as well as various non-fleet taxis and premium car services. The Property segment offers residential insurance solutions for homeowners, other property owners, and renters. Its portfolio further extends to include personal umbrella policies and both primary and excess flood insurance. Beyond underwriting, the company facilitates policy issuance and claims adjusting. It also serves as an agent for various additional insurance products, such as homeowner general liability and workers' compensation, and provides reinsurance services. Progressive's products are distributed through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly to consumers via its online platforms (including mobile access) and telephone channels. Established in 1937, The Progressive Corporation maintains its headquarters in Mayfield, Ohio.

CEO
Susan Patricia Griffith
Headquarters
Mayfield Village, OH
Employees
70,053
IPO
1980-03-17
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.