Dutch Bros Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

BROS

NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsCIK 0001866581dutchbros.comAbout BROS

Last close · Oct 26, 202642.02+0.53 (+1.28%)

Market cap$7.9B

Model value · P/E · peers

22.64

Dutch Bros closed at $42.02 — overvalued by 86% vs model.

14.38the model's range38.46

P/E · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero). From its peers' median P/E.

Other models

2.25 – 49.28

Wall St. target

60.00 30% below

Past year

—

Price and model value

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What the marks mean

Daily close

Valuation models

price $42.02 · as of Oct 27, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y—2.361679% overvalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 5y33.90 – 67.3049.2815% undervalued DCF · EBITDA exit · 10y0.42 – 20.362.251770% overvalued P/E · peersused14.38 – 38.4622.6486% overvalued PEG—23.8976% overvalued EV/EBITDA · peers32.75 – 57.9040.613% overvalued EV/Revenue · peers40.81 – 61.2548.3113% undervalued Wall St. consensus target—60.0030% below Cost of capital (WACC)—11.75%—

P/E · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero). How we value a stock walks through every input.

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How it is valued

Valued asHigh growth

High revenue growth (~30% recent)Thin margins (4.9% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings

What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for high-growth companies

Price / sales

3.2×

Revenue growth

27.9%

Gross margin

25.9%

Operating margin

9.8%

FCF margin

3.3%

EV / EBITDA

31.2×

On the lists: #31 Worst performing this year · #42 Insider buying

Full financials

Superinvestors

13F · Q2 2026

BridgewaterBridgewater Associates, LP$466,550

All 1 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted

10-26UBS · target75.00

10-22RBC Capital · “Sector Perform” from “Outperform”downgrade

10-22RBC Capital · target46.00

10-15Morgan Stanley · target71.00

Ratings, targets and estimates

Recent

filings, insider trades and key news

10-20Form 4 · SDM Individual Aggregator, LLC · 50,709 sh@ 44.01 10-20Form 4 · SDM Trust Aggregator, LLC · 94,978 sh@ 44.01 10-20Form 4 · SBoersma Travis · 94,978 sh@ 44.01 10-20Form 4 · SBoersma Travis · 50,709 sh@ 44.01 09-03S-3ASRShelf registration (automatic)08-20Form 4 · MGillett Stephen · 775 sh@ 0.00

All BROS filings on EDGAR

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

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The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just BROS. No account.

About Dutch Bros

Dutch Bros Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, operates and licenses drive-thru establishments throughout the United States. The company's business model is divided into two primary divisions: its directly owned and managed shops, and its franchising and other related ventures. Customers are served through the firm's corporate-operated locations and its online platforms, utilizing brand names like Dutch Bros, Dutch Bros Coffee, Dutch Bros Rebel, and Blue Rebel. Established in 1992, Dutch Bros Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Grants Pass, Oregon.

CEO: Christine Barone
Headquarters: Tempe, AZ
Employees: 27,000
IPO: 2021-09-15

Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.