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CME Group Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

CME
NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesCIK 0001156375cmegroup.comAbout CME
Last close · Oct 16, 2026293.87+4.41 (+1.52%)
Market cap$105.7B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
248.80
CME Group closed at $293.87 — overvalued by 18% vs model.
158.00the model's range678.01

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
108.48 – 308.13
Wall St. target
281.00 5% above
Above model, 1y
11 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
3.85%
Past 2 years
low 1.53%high 5.15%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$6.15Jun ’22$7.60Mar ’23$8.55Dec ’23$4.60Dec ’24$9.55Sep ’25$11.30TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
93.8%
Raised
15 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
12.9% a year
Last change
−82.6% · Jun 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $1.30, paid Sep 25, 2026

Research on CME

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Low/slowing growth (~8% recent)High profitability (62% net margin)Strong dividend yieldHighly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
26.3×
EV / EBITDA
18.3×
FCF yield
4.0%
Dividend yield, TTM
3.85%
Beta
0.27
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.10%
On the lists: #45 Insider buying
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-14Wells Fargo · target315.00
10-09Morgan Stanley · target337.00
10-07Barclays · target281.00
08-19Deutsche Bank · “Hold” from “Buy”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists CME as a comparable
Side by side:vs ICE

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just CME. No account.

About CME Group

CME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad spectrum of underlying assets, such as interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, alongside fixed-income products. The company additionally furnishes essential clearinghouse services, which entail the verification, settlement, and guarantee of futures, options, and cleared swap agreements traded across its venues. It also offers services for transaction processing and risk mitigation. Furthermore, the organization provides diverse market data services, encompassing both real-time and historical data feeds. Its wide-ranging client base consists of professional traders, financial institutions, both institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. Founded in Chicago, Illinois, in 1898, the enterprise was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. before rebranding as CME Group Inc. in July 2007.

CEO
Terrence A. Duffy
Headquarters
Chicago, IL
Employees
3,875
IPO
2002-12-06
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.