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Autodesk, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

ADSK
NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationCIK 0000769397autodesk.comAbout ADSK
Last close · Oct 16, 2026239.90−5.26 (−2.15%)
Market cap$50.1B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
141.39
Autodesk closed at $239.90 — overvalued by 70% vs model.
98.64the model's range260.10

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a software company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
16.84 – 362.89
Wall St. target
300.00 20% below
Above model, 1y
6 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Research on ADSK

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How it is valued

Valued asSoftware
Moderate growth (~14% recent)Moderate margins (16% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for software companies
Price / sales
7.1×
Revenue growth
17.5%
Gross margin
91.0%
FCF margin
33.4%
Rule of 40
51.0%
Operating margin
24.9%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-28Piper Sandler · target300.00
09-17Goldman Sachs · target265.00
09-14Cantor Fitzgerald · target215.00
08-11Goldman Sachs · “Neutral” from “Sell”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists ADSK as a comparable

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just ADSK. No account.

About Autodesk

Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele. Their diverse product line includes AutoCAD Civil 3D, a comprehensive solution for civil engineering tasks such as land development, transportation infrastructure, and environmental projects. For construction project management, they offer BIM 360, a cloud-based platform. Core design and drafting needs are met by AutoCAD and its specialized counterpart, AutoCAD LT. The company also provides CAM software, essential for computer numeric control (CNC) machining, inspection, and manufacturing modeling, alongside Fusion 360, an integrated platform for 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering. Autodesk further provides curated Industry Collections, offering comprehensive toolsets for professionals in architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC), product design and manufacturing (PDM), and media and entertainment sectors. Their offerings extend to Inventor, a robust suite for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling creation, visualization, and documentation; and Vault, their data management solution, designed to centralize information, expedite design workflows, and enhance collaboration. For advanced 3D modeling, animation, special effects, rendering, and compositing, they provide Maya and 3ds Max. Additionally, ShotGrid serves the media and entertainment industry as a cloud-based platform for review processes and production tracking. Autodesk distributes its offerings both directly to customers and through an extensive network of authorized resellers and distributors. Established in 1982, the company is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

CEO
Andrew Anagnost
Headquarters
San Francisco, CA
Employees
14,300
IPO
1985-06-28
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.