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Waste Management, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

WM
NYSEIndustrialsWaste ManagementCIK 0000823768wm.comAbout WM
Last close · Oct 16, 2026226.86+2.67 (+1.19%)
Market cap$90.7B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
167.23
Waste Management closed at $226.86 — overvalued by 36% vs model.
75.75the model's range400.15

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a mature, steady company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
53.39 – 251.24
Wall St. target
256.00 11% below
Above model, 1y
11 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.61%
Past 2 years
low 1.27%high 1.81%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$2.27Sep ’21$2.53Sep ’22$2.75Sep ’23$2.95Sep ’24$3.23Sep ’25$3.66TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
47.4%
Raised
22 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
10.0% a year
Last change
+14.5% · Mar 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.945, paid Sep 25, 2026

Research on WM

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & stable
Moderate growth (~11% recent)Moderate margins (11% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 2.3x)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for mature companies
P/E
33.9×
EV / EBITDA
15.7×
FCF yield
3.1%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.61%
Beta
0.43
Cost of capital (WACC)
6.92%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-08CIBC · target225.00
07-07CIBC · “Outperform” from “Neutral”upgrade
07-07CIBC · target244.00
01-30Oppenheimer · target264.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

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About Waste Management

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) functions as a premier provider of environmental waste solutions across North America, serving a diverse client base that includes residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. The company's core operations involve comprehensive collection services, which include gathering and transporting both waste materials and recyclables from their initial point of generation to designated transfer stations, material recovery facilities (MRFs), or final disposal sites. Waste Management maintains an extensive network of facilities, owning, developing, and operating landfill gas-to-energy plants within the United States, in addition to managing numerous transfer stations. As of December 31, 2021, its substantial infrastructure consisted of 255 solid waste landfills, 5 secure hazardous waste landfills, 96 material recovery facilities, and 340 transfer stations. Beyond primary collection and disposal, WM offers services in materials processing and commodities recycling. This extends to recycling brokerage, where they handle the marketing of recyclable goods for third-party entities, alongside providing various other strategic business solutions. Its service portfolio also encompasses construction and remediation projects, the responsible management of fly ash and other residues generated from coal and fuel combustion, and specialized in-plant services offering full-spectrum waste management consulting. Furthermore, the company delivers tailored disposal solutions for oil and gas exploration and production activities. Originally incorporated in 1987 as USA Waste Services, Inc., the company rebranded to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.

CEO
James C. Fish Jr.
Headquarters
Houston, TX
Employees
60,500
IPO
1988-06-22
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.