Valuation models
price $138.37 · as of Nov 2, 2026
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused60.88 – 106.5776.7380% overvaluedDCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y67.46 – 115.5485.0563% overvaluedP/E · peers45.72 – 141.1085.1463% overvaluedP/E · own history112.22 – 345.38143.534% undervaluedPEG—214.3435% undervaluedEV/EBITDA · peers146.18 – 178.82153.3310% undervaluedEV/Revenue · peers96.71 – 126.56108.1328% overvaluedDividend discount14.47 – 27.5320.01592% overvaluedWall St. consensus target—192.0028% belowCost of capital (WACC)—8.53%—
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How the headline model is chosen.
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
76.73
Vistra closed at $138.37 — overvalued by 80% vs model.
60.88the model's range106.57
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.
Other models
20.01 – 214.34
Wall St. target
192.00 28% below
Above model, 1y
30 of 30 days
How it is valued
Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~10% recent)Moderate margins (5% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 4.0x)
Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; how each model works is in the manual.