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Vistra Corp. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

VST
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersCIK 0001692819vistracorp.comAbout VST
Last close · Oct 16, 2026152.02−2.15 (−1.39%)
Market cap$51.0B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
27.21
Vistra closed at $152.02 — overvalued by 459% vs model.
3.02the model's range93.41

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
18.86 – 216.18
Wall St. target
208.00 27% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $152.02 · as of Oct 17, 2026

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 459% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.60%
Past 2 years
low 0.41%high 1.16%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$0.59Sep ’21$0.68Sep ’22$0.80Sep ’23$0.87Sep ’24$0.90Sep ’25$0.91TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
23.2%
Raised
6 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
9.3% a year
Last change
+0.4% · Sep 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.23, paid Sep 30, 2026

Research on VST

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Moderate growth (~13% recent)Moderate margins (5% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 3.7x)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
69.7×
EV / EBITDA
12.7×
FCF yield
0.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.60%
Beta
1.39
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.94%
On the lists: #15 Insider buying
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-05BMO Capital · target210.00
10-02Williams Trading · target202.00
10-01Bernstein · target181.00
02-10Jefferies · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

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About Vistra

Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Beyond its retail endeavors, Vistra also participates in generating electricity, facilitating wholesale energy transactions, managing commodity-related risks, producing fuel, and overseeing fuel logistics. With approximately 4.3 million customers, Vistra commands an impressive generation capacity of about 38,700 megawatts. This capacity is sustained by a diverse portfolio of facilities, including those powered by natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, solar, and advanced battery energy storage systems. The enterprise, initially known as Vistra Energy Corp., adopted its current name, Vistra Corp., in July 2020. Tracing its origins back to 1882, Vistra Corp. maintains its corporate headquarters in Irving, Texas.

CEO
James A. Burke
Headquarters
Irving, TX
Employees
6,390
IPO
2016-10-05
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.