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NRG Energy, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

NRG
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersCIK 0001013871nrg.comAbout NRG
Last close · Oct 16, 2026103.75+0.89 (+0.87%)
Market cap$21.8B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
188.36
NRG Energy closed at $103.75 — undervalued by 45% vs model.
98.90the model's range594.41

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
38.68 – 483.40
Wall St. target
212.50 51% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
1.80%
Past 2 years
low 0.97%high 2.09%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.28Jul ’21$1.38Jul ’22$1.48Jul ’23$1.60Aug ’24$1.73Aug ’25$1.87TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
53.7%
Raised
6 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
7.9% a year
Last change
+8.0% · Feb 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.475, paid Aug 17, 2026

Research on NRG

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~4% recent)Decelerated from ~28% 5y CAGRThin margins (2.8% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 9.8x)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
25.9×
EV / EBITDA
8.9×
FCF yield
3.8%
Dividend yield, TTM
1.80%
Beta
1.16
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.18%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
08-19BNP Paribas · target221.00
08-06BMO Capital · target214.00
08-05Scotiabank · target211.00
03-18Wolfe Research · “Outperform” from “Peer Perform”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just NRG. No account.

About NRG Energy

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial role in generating, distributing, and selling electricity and various related services, serving approximately six million customers across residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale sectors. Their energy generation capabilities are diverse, drawing from natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage technologies. Beyond core power provision, NRG offers an extensive array of solutions, including centralized system power, decentralized generation, renewable energy products, emergency backup power, distributed solar and storage installations, demand-side management, energy efficiency programs, expert advisory services, carbon management initiatives, and bespoke on-site energy solutions. Furthermore, NRG actively engages in the trading of electric power, natural gas, and associated commodities, alongside environmental credits, weather-related products, and various financial instruments such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps. The company also manages fuel procurement and transportation services. It directly markets energy, services, and products to retail consumers through several established brands, including NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy. As of December 31, 2021, NRG Energy's generation assets encompassed approximately 18,000 megawatts of capacity across 25 owned and leased facilities. The corporation was founded in 1989 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Houston, Texas.

CEO
Robert J. Gaudette
Headquarters
Houston, TX
Employees
16,702
IPO
2003-12-02
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.