Valuation models
price $640.43 · as of Nov 2, 2026
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused450.97 – 683.38545.0218% overvaluedDCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y474.65 – 718.77573.4212% overvaluedDCF · EBITDA exit · 5y800.71 – 876.22837.4424% undervaluedDCF · EBITDA exit · 10y748.47 – 884.36813.1421% undervaluedP/E · peers182.05 – 414.26298.16115% overvaluedP/E · own history456.69 – 604.60557.2515% overvaluedPEG—336.9090% overvaluedEV/EBITDA · peers901.62 – 1,698.05964.3234% undervaluedEV/Revenue · peers590.03 – 1,113.57672.455% undervaluedEarnings power value211.87 – 322.40257.11149% overvaluedWall St. consensus target—656.002% belowCost of capital (WACC)—8.27%—
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How the headline model is chosen.
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
545.02
Ulta Beauty closed at $640.43 — overvalued by 18% vs model.
450.97the model's range683.38
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.
Other models
257.11 – 964.32
Wall St. target
656.00 2% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 30 days
How it is valued
Valued asMature & Stable
Low/slowing growth (~5% recent)Moderate margins (9% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; how each model works is in the manual.