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Tesla, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

TSLA
NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersCIK 0001318605tesla.comAbout TSLA
Valuation grade ?D
Quant grade ?B
Last close · Oct 30, 2026399.81−3.49 (−0.87%)
Sum of the parts · 10-Q Sep 30, 2026Full breakdown ›
$97
Base case, per share
312% overvalued
CaseValuePrice vs it
Bear case$241,598% overvalued
Base case$97312% overvalued
Bull case$53926% undervalued
Price implies
2.2M
robotaxi cars by 2030
Wall St. target
$434 8% below
Weighted 25 / 50 / 25
$189

How it is valued

Valued asHigh growth
Revenue declining (~-1% recent)Decelerated from ~25% 5y CAGRThin margins (4.0% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; how each model works is in the manual.