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Steel Dynamics, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

STLD
NASDAQBasic MaterialsSteelCIK 0001022671steeldynamics.comAbout STLD
Last close · Oct 16, 2026240.54−0.22 (−0.09%)
Market cap$34.5B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
219.26
Steel Dynamics closed at $240.54 — overvalued by 10% vs model.
156.27the model's range367.49

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
27.42 – 304.92
Wall St. target
272.00 12% below
Above model, 1y
10 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.87%
Past 2 years
low 0.72%high 1.72%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.03Sep ’21$1.28Sep ’22$1.62Sep ’23$1.81Sep ’24$1.96Sep ’25$2.09TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
58.1%
Raised
13 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
15.2% a year
Last change
+6.0% · Mar 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.53, paid Oct 9, 2026

Research on STLD

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
Revenue declining (~-2% recent)Moderate margins (7% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
30.1×
EV / EBITDA
17.9×
FCF yield
1.4%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.87%
Beta
1.49
Cost of capital (WACC)
9.87%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
09-18Wells Fargo · target257.00
08-10UBS · target276.00
07-29Goldman Sachs · target300.00
01-09Morgan Stanley · “Equal Weight” from “Overweight”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label
1 more company lists STLD as a comparable

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About Steel Dynamics

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel products, including hot, cold, and coated rolled steel, various structural shapes like beams, channels, and angles, flat and reinforcing bars, and a diverse selection of rail and engineered steel bar products. This segment also provides specialized processing services for both bar products (such as turning, polishing, and heat treating) and specialty items (including cutting, welding, and galvanizing). Its offerings cater to numerous industries, such as construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, and pipe and tube production. Sales are channeled directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations division focuses on acquiring, processing, and reselling ferrous (e.g., heavy melting steel, shredded scrap, cast iron) and nonferrous (e.g., aluminum, copper, stainless steel) scrap metals, transforming them into reusable materials. This division further offers supplementary services including transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment manufactures crucial components for commercial building construction, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. Established in 1993 and headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana, the company also engages in exporting its products internationally.

CEO
Mark D. Millett
Headquarters
Fort Wayne, IN
Employees
14,400
IPO
1996-11-22
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.