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Moderna, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

MRNA
NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyCIK 0001682852modernatx.comAbout MRNA
Valuation grade ?–not graded
Quant grade ?D
Last close · Oct 30, 2026221.72−1.04 (−0.47%)

Valuation models

price $221.72 · as of Nov 2, 2026

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. How the headline model is chosen. The price is 840% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine build:07a9d3f952ed
Model value · EV/Revenue · peers
23.59
Moderna closed at $221.72 — overvalued by 840% vs model.
22.99the model's range47.21

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. From its peers' median EV/Revenue.

Other models
—
Wall St. target
136.00 63% above
Above model, 1y
30 of 30 days

How it is valued

Valued asLoss-Making
Revenue declining (~-47% recent)Currently unprofitableHighly cyclical earningsNegative free cash flow
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; how each model works is in the manual.