SweetValueLab
Write for us

Moderna, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

MRNA
NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyCIK 0001682852modernatx.comAbout MRNA
Last close · Oct 16, 2026218.01−18.49 (−7.82%)
Market cap$87.0B
Model value · EV/Revenue · peers
17.03
Moderna closed at $218.01 — overvalued by 1180% vs model.
16.43the model's range40.66

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. From its peers' median EV/Revenue.

Other models
—
Wall St. target
132.50 65% above
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

Embed this card

MRNA's close against its model value, as a 420×168 card for your own page. It updates nightly with this site and links back here.

Free to embed; keep the attribution link.
Loading chart…
What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $218.01 · as of Oct 17, 2026

EV/Revenue · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero); P/E · peers does not describe this kind of business; EV/EBITDA · peers could not run on the filed statements. How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 1180% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Research on MRNA

No posts on MRNA yet.
Studied MRNA from its filings? Guest posts are reviewed before they go live.Write about MRNA →

How it is valued

Valued asLoss-Making
Revenue declining (~-47% recent)Currently unprofitableHighly cyclical earningsNegative free cash flow
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025
P/E
—
EV / EBITDA
-4.2×
FCF yield
-2.4%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.00%
Beta
0.90
Cost of capital (WACC)
8.92%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Goldman Sachs · target137.00
09-30Citigroup · “Sell” from “Neutral”downgrade
09-03Rothschild & Co · “Sell” from “Neutral”downgrade
09-03UBS · target81.00
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just MRNA. No account.

About Moderna

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah. Additionally, Moderna is advancing systemic secreted and cell surface-targeted therapeutics, an array of cancer vaccines (including personalized, KRAS, and checkpoint varieties), intratumoral immuno-oncology products, localized regenerative treatments, systemic intracellular medicines, and inhaled pulmonary solutions. Moderna maintains strategic alliances with several prominent entities, including AstraZeneca PLC, Merck & Co., Inc., Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited, Carisma Therapeutics, Inc., Metagenomi, Inc., the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), the Institute for Life Changing Medicines, and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. It also holds a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. Founded in 2010 as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc., the company officially became Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Its corporate headquarters are located in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CEO
Stéphane Bancel
Headquarters
Cambridge, MA
Employees
4,700
IPO
2018-12-07
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.