Valuation models
price $154.03 · as of Nov 2, 2026
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5yused137.63 – 260.71180.5215% undervaluedDCF · Perpetuity growth · 10y125.25 – 228.43161.325% undervaluedDCF · EBITDA exit · 5y126.09 – 137.80131.7917% overvaluedDCF · EBITDA exit · 10y117.43 – 136.87126.6922% overvaluedP/E · peers115.45 – 190.09126.0622% overvaluedP/E · own history100.13 – 150.22111.0239% overvaluedPEG—182.1315% undervaluedEV/EBITDA · peers132.99 – 149.94140.4410% overvaluedEV/Revenue · peers56.36 – 62.6956.77171% overvaluedEarnings power value36.02 – 66.7447.72223% overvaluedDividend discount77.53 – 260.78126.2122% overvaluedWall St. consensus target—163.506% belowCost of capital (WACC)—6.30%—
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. How the headline model is chosen.
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
180.52
ConocoPhillips closed at $154.03 — undervalued by 15% vs model.
137.63the model's range260.71
DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.
Other models
47.72 – 182.13
Wall St. target
163.50 6% below
Below model, 1y
26 of 31 days
How it is valued
Valued asCyclical
Low/slowing growth (~2% recent)Decelerated from ~26% 5y CAGRModerate margins (14% net margin)Pays dividendsHighly cyclical earnings
Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; how each model works is in the manual.