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Axon Enterprise, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

AXON
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseCIK 0001069183axon.comAbout AXON
Last close · Oct 16, 2026390.29−26.90 (−6.45%)
Market cap$31.7B
Model value · P/E · peers
97.22
Axon Enterprise closed at $390.29 — overvalued by 301% vs model.
92.35the model's range103.52

P/E · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero). From its peers' median P/E.

Other models
0.08 – 618.15
Wall St. target
681.50 43% below
Above model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Valuation models

price $390.29 · as of Oct 17, 2026

P/E · peers leads because DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y could not lead: the cash-flow gate is shut (an operating loss, or three years of free cash flow summing below zero). How we value a stock walks through every input. The price is 301% above the model value: the models see only the filed business, and a company priced on businesses with no revenue line yet is better taken apart, as Tesla is.

engine pkg:0.1.0

Research on AXON

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How it is valued

Valued asHigh growth
High revenue growth (~33% recent)Thin margins (4.5% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025 · chosen for high-growth companies
Price / sales
11.3×
Revenue growth
33.5%
Gross margin
59.7%
Operating margin
-2.2%
FCF margin
2.7%
EV / EBITDA
165×
Full financials

Superinvestors

13F

None of the tracked managers reported a position in their latest 13F.

All 0 holders

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-15Raymond James · target675.00
09-03Argus Research · target600.00
08-06Morgan Stanley · target640.00
08-05Craig-Hallum · “Buy” from “Hold”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

The weekly

One email a week across every stock we cover: 13F filings, insider trades, earnings and new research. It covers the whole market, not just AXON. No account.

About Axon Enterprise

Axon Enterprise, Inc., founded in 1993 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, was previously known as TASER International, Inc. until its rebranding in April 2017. The company specializes in the development, production, and sale of conducted energy devices (CEDs) marketed under its well-known TASER brand, catering to both domestic and international clients. Axon's operations are divided into two primary segments: TASER, and Software and Sensors. In addition to its signature TASER devices, such as the TASER 7, X26P, X2, and consumer models, along with their corresponding cartridges, Axon offers an extensive portfolio of hardware and cloud-based software. These solutions are designed to equip law enforcement agencies with the means to capture, securely archive, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. Key products in this category include on-officer body cameras, Axon Fleet in-car systems, the Axon Evidence digital evidence management platform, Axon Signal-enabled devices, extended hardware warranties, and vital accessories like docks, cartridges, and batteries. Axon distributes its offerings through multiple channels, including its dedicated direct sales force, various distribution partners, its online storefront, and authorized third-party resellers. Furthermore, the company has established a strategic partnership with Fusus, Inc. to enhance the functionality of Axon Respond and the Fusus Real Time Crime Center in the Cloud solution, providing agencies with real-time operational awareness and more efficient investigative processes.

CEO
Patrick W. Smith
Headquarters
Scottsdale, AZ
Employees
5,100
IPO
2001-06-07
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.