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Twilio — software card

TWLO
LargeRevenue $5.6B TTM4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 16, 2026244.37P/E 34.0 · EV $37.4B
EV / revenue6.7×EV / gross profit 13.8×
Rule of 4038growth +18% + FCF +20%
+119% above 5y medianEV / revenue vs. its own five years
Board median EV / revenue10.2×five-year median 11.8× · −14%
Median Rule of 405321 of 24 above the line
Median revenue growth18%a year ago 15% · accelerating
Median SBC / revenue11%FCF margin 30% → 16% ex-SBC
Lights on0 of 3prices Oct 16, 2026 · TTM through Aug 31, 2026

Against the line

growth + FCF margin, in points
line 40score 38
growth 18 ptFCF margin 20 pt

Growth +18% plus FCF margin +20% is 38 points, 2 below the line at 40. Counting the stock as an expense: 27 points.

Where it has traded

quarter-end EV / revenue · 20 quarters · Sep 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
0×6×11×17×22×2021202220232024202520262021-09-30 · 20.6× (close 319.05 · TTM revenue 2.55B)2021-12-31 · 15.1× (close 263.34 · TTM revenue 2.84B)2022-03-31 · 8.3× (close 164.81 · TTM revenue 3.13B)2022-06-30 · 3.6× (close 83.81 · TTM revenue 3.40B)2022-09-30 · 2.7× (close 69.14 · TTM revenue 3.64B)2022-12-31 · 1.6× (close 48.96 · TTM revenue 3.83B)2023-03-31 · 2.5× (close 66.63 · TTM revenue 3.96B)2023-06-30 · 2.3× (close 63.62 · TTM revenue 4.05B)2023-09-30 · 1.9× (close 58.53 · TTM revenue 4.10B)2023-12-31 · 2.6× (close 75.87 · TTM revenue 4.15B)2024-03-31 · 2.0× (close 61.15 · TTM revenue 4.19B)2024-06-30 · 1.8× (close 56.81 · TTM revenue 4.24B)2024-09-30 · 2.0× (close 65.22 · TTM revenue 4.34B)2024-12-31 · 3.7× (close 108.08 · TTM revenue 4.46B)2025-03-31 · 3.2× (close 97.91 · TTM revenue 4.58B)2025-06-30 · 3.9× (close 124.36 · TTM revenue 4.73B)2025-09-30 · 3.0× (close 100.09 · TTM revenue 4.90B)2025-12-31 · 4.0× (close 142.24 · TTM revenue 5.07B)2026-03-31 · 3.5× (close 125.82 · TTM revenue 5.30B)2026-06-30 · 5.6× (close 206.33 · TTM revenue 5.57B)p75 4×med 3×p25 2×now 6.7×
Five-year median 3.1×, middle half 2.2–3.9×, range 1.6–20.6×. Now 6.7×: +119% above its own median, higher than 85% of those quarters.Each quarter at its own close, shares and balance sheet · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

What the cash flow really is

TTM through Jun 30, 2026 · $B
0246Revenue: 5.6 $B5.6RevenueCost of revenue: −2.9 $B−2.9Cost ofrevenueGross profit: 2.7 $B2.7GrossprofitR&D: −1.1 $B−1.1R&DSales & G&A: −1.3 $B−1.3Sales &G&AOther operating: −0.1 $B−0.1OtheroperatingOperating income: 0.3 $B0.3OperatingincomeAdd back SBC: 0.6 $B0.6Add backSBCD&A & working cap.: 0.2 $B0.2D&A &working cap.Operating cash flow: 1.1 $B1.1Operatingcash flowCapex: 0.0 $B0.0CapexFCF: 1.1 $B1.1FCFLess SBC: −0.6 $B−0.6LessSBCFCF ex-SBC: 0.5 $B0.5FCFex-SBC
FCF 1.11B − SBC 0.59B = 0.52B ex-SBC · operating income 0.31B is the GAAP figure after SBC

Against its scale group

TWLO (blue) vs. the other Large companies on the board (14), grey
Revenue growth+18% vs. +27%
Gross margin49% vs. 77%
FCF margin+20% vs. +34%
SBC / revenue11% vs. 15%
Rule of 4038 vs. 61
EV / revenue6.7× vs. 19.6×

Group averages are the plain mean of the other companies in the same scale group with a usable window.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Sep 30, 2024 → Jun 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
Revenue, $B1.50
Growth YoY, quarter+22%
FCF margin, quarter+26%
SBC / revenue, quarter9%