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Microsoft — software card

MSFT
MegaRevenue $331.8B TTM4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 16, 2026529.05P/E 29.5 · EV $4.0T
EV / revenue12.0×EV / gross profit 17.7×
Rule of 4038growth +18% + FCF +20%
+1% above 5y medianEV / revenue vs. its own five years
Board median EV / revenue10.2×five-year median 11.8× · −14%
Median Rule of 405321 of 24 above the line
Median revenue growth18%a year ago 15% · accelerating
Median SBC / revenue11%FCF margin 30% → 16% ex-SBC
Lights on0 of 3prices Oct 16, 2026 · TTM through Aug 31, 2026

Against the line

growth + FCF margin, in points
line 40score 38
growth 18 ptFCF margin 20 pt

Growth +18% plus FCF margin +20% is 38 points, 2 below the line at 40. Counting the stock as an expense: 34 points.

Where it has traded

quarter-end EV / revenue · 20 quarters · Sep 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
7.0×9.0×11.0×13.0×15.0×2021202220232024202520262021-09-30 · 11.8× (close 281.92 · TTM revenue 176.25B)2021-12-31 · 13.5× (close 336.32 · TTM revenue 184.90B)2022-03-31 · 11.9× (close 308.31 · TTM revenue 192.56B)2022-06-30 · 9.6× (close 256.83 · TTM revenue 198.27B)2022-09-30 · 8.4× (close 232.90 · TTM revenue 203.07B)2022-12-31 · 8.7× (close 239.82 · TTM revenue 204.09B)2023-03-31 · 10.2× (close 288.30 · TTM revenue 207.59B)2023-06-30 · 11.8× (close 340.54 · TTM revenue 211.91B)2023-09-30 · 10.6× (close 315.75 · TTM revenue 218.31B)2023-12-31 · 12.5× (close 376.04 · TTM revenue 227.58B)2024-03-31 · 13.4× (close 420.72 · TTM revenue 236.58B)2024-06-30 · 13.7× (close 446.95 · TTM revenue 245.12B)2024-09-30 · 12.7× (close 430.30 · TTM revenue 254.19B)2024-12-31 · 12.1× (close 421.50 · TTM revenue 261.80B)2025-03-31 · 10.5× (close 375.39 · TTM revenue 270.01B)2025-06-30 · 13.2× (close 497.41 · TTM revenue 281.72B)2025-09-30 · 13.2× (close 517.95 · TTM revenue 293.81B)2025-12-31 · 11.9× (close 483.62 · TTM revenue 305.45B)2026-03-31 · 8.8× (close 370.17 · TTM revenue 318.27B)2026-06-30 · 8.5× (close 373.02 · TTM revenue 331.84B)p75 12.8×med 11.9×p25 10.1×now 12.0×
Five-year median 11.9×, middle half 10.1–12.8×, range 8.4–13.7×. Now 12.0×: +1% above its own median, higher than 60% of those quarters.Each quarter at its own close, shares and balance sheet · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

What the cash flow really is

TTM through Jun 30, 2026 · $B
0100200300Revenue: 331.8 $B331.8RevenueCost of revenue: −106.4 $B−106.4Cost ofrevenueGross profit: 225.5 $B225.5GrossprofitR&D: −35.6 $B−35.6R&DSales & G&A: −34.7 $B−34.7Sales &G&AOperating income: 155.2 $B155.2OperatingincomeAdd back SBC: 12.4 $B12.4Add backSBCD&A & working cap.: 15.3 $B15.3D&A &working cap.Operating cash flow: 182.9 $B182.9Operatingcash flowCapex: −115.9 $B−115.9CapexFCF: 67.0 $B67.0FCFLess SBC: −12.4 $B−12.4LessSBCFCF ex-SBC: 54.6 $B54.6FCFex-SBC
FCF 66.99B − SBC 12.40B = 54.58B ex-SBC · operating income 155.24B is the GAAP figure after SBC

Against its scale group

MSFT (blue) vs. the other Mega companies on the board (4), grey
Revenue growth+18% vs. +15%
Gross margin68% vs. 78%
FCF margin+20% vs. +19%
SBC / revenue4% vs. 9%
Rule of 4038 vs. 34
EV / revenue12.0× vs. 5.0×

Group averages are the plain mean of the other companies in the same scale group with a usable window.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Sep 30, 2024 → Jun 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
Revenue, $B90.01
Growth YoY, quarter+18%
FCF margin, quarter+22%
SBC / revenue, quarter3%