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Seagate Technology Holdings plc — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

STX
NASDAQTechnologyComputer HardwareCIK 0001137789seagate.comAbout STX
Last close · Oct 16, 2026639.01−51.80 (−7.50%)
Market cap$145.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
208.14
Seagate Technology closed at $639.01 — overvalued by 207% vs model.
158.40the model's range302.88

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for a cyclical company — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
41.94 – 916.19
Wall St. target
1,000.00 36% below
Above model, 1y
78 of 78 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.46%
Past 2 years
low 0.27%high 4.27%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$2.68Sep ’21$2.80Sep ’22$2.80Sep ’23$2.80Sep ’24$2.88Sep ’25$2.96TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2026
20.4%
Raised
2 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
2.0% a year
Last change
+2.8% · Dec 2025
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.74, paid Oct 7, 2026

Research on STX

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How it is valued

Valued asCyclical
High revenue growth (~36% recent)High profitability (26% net margin)Highly cyclical earnings
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2026 · chosen for cyclical companies
P/E
46.0×
EV / EBITDA
34.6×
FCF yield
2.2%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.46%
Beta
2.08
Cost of capital (WACC)
12.10%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-16Wells Fargo · target865.00
07-30UBS · target900.00
07-29Barclays · target1,250.00
07-10Wells Fargo · “Overweight” from “Equal Weight”upgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

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About Seagate Technology

Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs. Its consumer-focused segment features external storage devices sold under popular lines such as Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, and Expansion, as well as the premium LaCie brand. The company's product range further extends to internal desktop and notebook drives, HDDs for digital video recorders (DVRs), and high-performance gaming SSDs. Moreover, Seagate delivers the Lyve edge-to-cloud platform, an innovative solution designed for managing and transferring vast amounts of data. Its clientele primarily consists of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, and retailers. Established in 1978, Seagate Technology Holdings plc continues to be a leader in the data storage industry.

CEO
William David Mosley
Headquarters
Singapore, NW
Employees
30,000
IPO
2002-12-11
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.