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HCA Healthcare, Inc. — Intrinsic Value & Fair Price

HCA
NYSEHealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesCIK 0000860730hcahealthcare.comAbout HCA
Last close · Oct 16, 2026458.84−9.66 (−2.06%)
Market cap$99.3B
Model value · DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y
645.25
HCA Healthcare closed at $458.84 — undervalued by 29% vs model.
344.31the model's range1,955.40

DCF · Perpetuity growth · 5y leads for mature & stable — positive operating income and three years of positive free cash flow. From a five-year discounted cash flow.

Other models
26.69 – 703.52
Wall St. target
476.00 4% below
Below model, 1y
20 of 20 days

Price and model value

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What the marks mean
Daily close

Dividends

Quarterly · as of Oct 16, 2026
Yield, trailing 12 months
0.67%
Past 2 years
low 0.53%high 0.89%
Dividends per share, a year at a time
$1.87Sep ’21$2.16Sep ’22$2.36Sep ’23$2.58Sep ’24$2.82Sep ’25$3.06TTM
Dividends / free cash flow, FY2025
8.8%
Raised
7 years in a row
Growth, 5 yrs
10.4% a year
Last change
+8.3% · Mar 2026
Every payment, with ex-dates · latest $0.78, paid Sep 30, 2026

Research on HCA

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How it is valued

Valued asMature & Stable
Low/slowing growth (~8% recent)Moderate margins (9% net margin)Highly cyclical earningsHigh leverage (D/E 5.0x)Strong FCF yield (7.7%)
What growth the price implies: the reverse DCF

Key figures

FY2025
P/E
16.2×
EV / EBITDA
9.3×
FCF yield
7.3%
Dividend yield, TTM
0.67%
Beta
1.11
Cost of capital (WACC)
7.78%
Full financials

Analyst actions

third-party, quoted
10-07RBC Capital · target496.00
09-22BMO Capital · target495.00
07-28Goldman Sachs · target485.00
07-08Barclays · “Equal Weight” from “Overweight”downgrade
Ratings, targets and estimates

Comparable companies

by business, not by industry label

The weekly

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About HCA Healthcare

HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States. The organization manages a network of general and acute care hospitals that provide a full spectrum of medical and surgical care, encompassing inpatient services, intensive care, cardiac treatment, diagnostic procedures, and emergency services. These hospitals additionally offer a broad range of outpatient care, such as ambulatory surgery, laboratory testing, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. Beyond its hospital infrastructure, HCA Healthcare operates numerous specialized outpatient facilities. These include standalone ambulatory surgery centers, dedicated emergency care facilities, urgent care clinics, walk-in clinics, advanced diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology treatment facilities, physician practices, and various other healthcare sites. Furthermore, the company oversees psychiatric hospitals, which offer diverse therapeutic programs. These services cater to child, adolescent, and adult psychiatric care, alongside adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling. As of December 31, 2021, HCA Healthcare's extensive portfolio included 182 hospitals, specifically 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals. Its network also featured 125 freestanding surgery centers and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers, all distributed across 20 states and England. Founded in 1968 and formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc., the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Nashville, Tennessee.

CEO
Samuel N. Hazen
Headquarters
Nashville, TN
Employees
320,000
IPO
2011-03-10
Full company profile

Model estimates for research reference only, not investment advice. Every model rests on assumptions that may not match what happens; the formulas are in how we value a stock.