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Zions — bank health check

ZION
RegionalAssets $90.9B4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 26, 202665.93P/E 8.1 · yield 2.8%
P/TBV1.52×TBVPS 43.46
Line · r 10%2.32×range 2.03–2.70×
−35% discountP/TBV ÷ line − 1
Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp
UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 26, 20264.22 · 4.68 · 5.0010y−2y +0.32 · 10y−3m +0.78
KBE · YTD+8.9%1D +0.4% · 1Y +14.4% · 5Y +17%
KRE · YTD+12.2%1D +0.4% · 1Y +18.8% · 5Y +0%
SPY · YTD+12.3%1D +0.8% · 1Y +13.1% · 5Y +68%
Prices as ofOct 26, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity
r 11% · 2.03×r 9% · 2.70×now 1.52×
0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 2.32× for a 19.2% ROTCE; the market pays 1.52×, a 35% discount to the line. Below the range even at r = 11%.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026
0.50×1.13×1.75×2.38×3.00×2021202220232024202520262021-12-31 · 1.62× (close 63.16 · TBVPS 39.11)2022-03-31 · 2.06× (close 65.56 · TBVPS 31.90)2022-06-30 · 1.84× (close 50.90 · TBVPS 27.69)2022-09-30 · 2.36× (close 50.86 · TBVPS 21.51)2022-12-31 · 2.16× (close 49.16 · TBVPS 22.76)2023-03-31 · 1.20× (close 29.93 · TBVPS 24.87)2023-06-30 · 1.05× (close 26.86 · TBVPS 25.60)2023-09-30 · 1.35× (close 34.89 · TBVPS 25.84)2023-12-31 · 1.55× (close 43.87 · TBVPS 28.39)2024-03-31 · 1.48× (close 43.40 · TBVPS 29.40)2024-06-30 · 1.41× (close 43.37 · TBVPS 30.79)2024-09-30 · 1.42× (close 47.22 · TBVPS 33.24)2024-12-31 · 1.60× (close 54.25 · TBVPS 33.98)2025-03-31 · 1.42× (close 49.86 · TBVPS 34.99)2025-06-30 · 1.41× (close 51.94 · TBVPS 36.95)2025-09-30 · 1.46× (close 56.58 · TBVPS 38.78)2025-12-31 · 1.43× (close 58.54 · TBVPS 40.94)2026-03-31 · 1.38× (close 57.62 · TBVPS 41.76)2026-06-30 · 1.55× (close 69.19 · TBVPS 44.65)2026-09-30 · 1.44× (close 62.65 · TBVPS 43.46)p75 1.60×med 1.45×p25 1.41×now 1.52×
Five-year median 1.45×, middle half 1.41–1.60×, range 1.05–2.36×. Now 1.52×: +5% above its own median, higher than 60% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B
01234Interest income: 4.1 $B4.1InterestincomeInterest expense: −1.4 $B−1.4InterestexpenseNII: 2.7 $B2.7NIINon-interest income: 1.1 $B1.1Non-interestincomeNet revenue: 3.8 $B3.8NetrevenueOperating expenses: −2.2 $B−2.2OperatingexpensesProvision: 0.0 $B0.0ProvisionPre-tax: 1.6 $B1.6Pre-taxTax: −0.3 $B−0.3TaxNet income: 1.2 $B1.2Netincome
assets $90.9B ÷ TCE $6.3B = 14.4× leverage · ROA 1.33% × 14.4 = ROTCE 19.2%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10)
ZION72 / 28
Tier average76 / 24

Efficiency 58.9% vs. tier 62.1% · ROTCE 19.2% vs. 12.9% · credit cost −0.2% vs. 4.7% · AOCI/TCE −31.5% vs. −9.3%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
NII, $B0.7
Provision, $B−0.01
Efficiency62.8%
AOCI / TCE−31.5%