Valuation range the line at three costs of equity r 11% · 1.47× r 9% · 1.97× now 1.21×
0.0× 1.0× 2.0× 3.0× 4.0×
At r = 10% the line gives 1.69× for a 14.8% ROTCE; the market pays 1.21×, a 28% discount to the line . Below the range even at r = 11%.
Where it has traded quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026 0.50× 1.38× 2.25× 3.13× 4.00× 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2021-12-31 · 3.37× (close 107.65 · TBVPS 31.92) 2022-03-31 · 2.88× (close 82.82 · TBVPS 28.79) 2022-06-30 · 2.42× (close 70.60 · TBVPS 29.18) 2022-09-30 · 2.36× (close 65.74 · TBVPS 27.81) 2022-12-31 · 2.00× (close 59.56 · TBVPS 29.82) 2023-03-31 · 1.06× (close 35.54 · TBVPS 33.60) 2023-06-30 · 1.06× (close 36.47 · TBVPS 34.25) 2023-09-30 · 1.41× (close 45.97 · TBVPS 32.68) 2023-12-31 · 1.79× (close 65.79 · TBVPS 36.71) 2024-03-31 · 1.73× (close 64.19 · TBVPS 37.00) 2024-06-30 · 1.62× (close 62.82 · TBVPS 38.77) 2024-09-30 · 2.01× (close 86.49 · TBVPS 43.01) 2024-12-31 · 1.98× (close 83.54 · TBVPS 42.25) 2025-03-31 · 1.78× (close 76.83 · TBVPS 43.16) 2025-06-30 · 1.67× (close 77.98 · TBVPS 46.73) 2025-09-30 · 1.82× (close 86.72 · TBVPS 47.70) 2025-12-31 · 1.76× (close 84.07 · TBVPS 47.71) 2026-03-31 · 1.50× (close 70.85 · TBVPS 47.19) 2026-06-30 · 1.66× (close 82.20 · TBVPS 49.43) 2026-09-30 · 1.21× (close 75.10 · TBVPS 62.31) p75 2.00× med 1.77× p25 1.59× now 1.21× Five-year median 1.77×, middle half 1.59–2.00×, range 1.06–3.37×. Now 1.21×: −32% below its own median, higher than 15% of those quarters. Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile
Where the money goes TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B 0 1 2 3 4 5 Interest income: 4.9 $B 4.9 Interest income Interest expense: −1.8 $B −1.8 Interest expense NII: 3.1 $B 3.1 NII Non-interest income: 0.9 $B 0.9 Non-interest income Net revenue: 4.0 $B 4.0 Net revenue Operating expenses: −2.3 $B −2.3 Operating expenses Provision: −0.5 $B −0.5 Provision Pre-tax: 1.2 $B 1.2 Pre-tax Tax: −0.2 $B −0.2 Tax Net income: 1.0 $B 1.0 Net income
assets $98.1B ÷ TCE $6.7B = 14.6× leverage · ROA 1.01% × 14.6 = ROTCE 14.8%
Revenue mix NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10) WAL 78 / 22
Tier average 76 / 24
Efficiency 56.8% vs. tier 62.4% · ROTCE 14.8% vs. 13.5% · credit cost 12.3% vs. 3.1% · AOCI/TCE −11.7% vs. −12.1%.
Quarter by quarter 8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter