Northern Trust — bank health check

NTRS

Custody & trustAssets $154.4B3q annualized

Close · Oct 26, 2026169.55P/E 13.6 · yield 1.9%

P/TBV2.66×TBVPS 63.66

Line · r 10%2.46×range 2.15–2.87×

+8% premiumP/TBV ÷ line − 1

Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp

UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 26, 20264.22 · 4.68 · 5.0010y−2y +0.32 · 10y−3m +0.78

KBE · YTD+8.9%1D +0.4% · 1Y +14.4% · 5Y +17%

KRE · YTD+12.2%1D +0.4% · 1Y +18.8% · 5Y +0%

SPY · YTD+12.3%1D +0.8% · 1Y +13.1% · 5Y +68%

Prices as ofOct 26, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity

r 11% · 2.15×r 9% · 2.87×now 2.66×

0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 2.46× for a 20.2% ROTCE; the market pays 2.66×, a 8% premium to the line.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026

Five-year median 1.90×, middle half 1.71–2.30×, range 1.40–2.88×. Now 2.66×: +40% above its own median, higher than 90% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Jun 30, 2026 · $B

assets $154.4B ÷ TCE $11.8B = 13.1× leverage · ROA 1.54% × 13.1 = ROTCE 20.2%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Custody & trust peers (2)

NTRS28 / 72

Tier average23 / 77

Efficiency 66.1% vs. tier 64.5% · ROTCE 20.2% vs. 22.1% · credit cost −0.1% vs. −0.1% · AOCI/TCE 112.1% vs. −15.2%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter

NII, $B0.7

Provision, $B−0.01

Efficiency60.7%

AOCI / TCE−4.7%

Risk lights

on / off, no score

Rateoff

Off. AOCI/TCE 112.1% (light needs below -15%) and NII share 28% (needs at least 65%).

Creditoff

Off. Provision −0.1% of net revenue (light at 8%); not up more than 20% two quarters in a row.

Capitaloff

Off. CET1 12.2% is 520bp above the 7.0% requirement.

The eight numbers

colour = threshold

ROTCE: 20.2%
P/TBV · line r 10%: 2.66× · 2.46×
Efficiency (custody +10): 66.1%
CET1 · requirement: 12.2% · 7.0%
NII / assets (≈ NIM): 1.70%
Credit cost: −0.1%
NII share · rate sensitivity: 28% · low
AOCI / TCE: 112.1%
P/E · yield · payout: 13.6 · 1.9% · 26%
ROA · leverage: 1.54% · 13.1×
Assets · TCE: $154.4B · $11.8B

Thresholds: ROTCE ≥18% · efficiency ≤55% · credit cost ≤5% · AOCI/TCE ≥-5% are green. Full method → · How to value a bank →

Hand-maintained fields

as of Jun 30, 2026

CET1: 12.2%
CET1 requirement (incl. SCB): 7.0%
Net charge-off rate: not available
Non-interest-bearing deposits: not available
Uninsured deposits: not available

Source

Data quality this run

3-quarter annualized

Quarter ending 2026-09-30 excluded: netInterestIncome ≠ interestIncome − interestExpense (±3%); costOfRevenue < interestExpense (beyond a 3%-of-revenue release).

TTM figures are 3 quarters annualized (× 4/3).

Prices Oct 26, 2026 · financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026.