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KeyCorp — bank health check

KEY
RegionalAssets $175.3B4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 26, 202621.21P/E 11.7 · yield 3.9%
P/TBV—share count missing
Line · r 10%—no line
no lineP/TBV ÷ line − 1
Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp
UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 26, 20264.22 · 4.68 · 5.0010y−2y +0.32 · 10y−3m +0.78
KBE · YTD+8.9%1D +0.4% · 1Y +14.4% · 5Y +17%
KRE · YTD+12.2%1D +0.4% · 1Y +18.8% · 5Y +0%
SPY · YTD+12.3%1D +0.8% · 1Y +13.1% · 5Y +68%
Prices as ofOct 26, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity

No line: the bank's ROTCE is at or below the 3% growth rate, so the formula gives no positive multiple. The P/TBV stands on its own.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 19 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
0.50×1.00×1.50×2.00×2.50×2021202220232024202520262021-12-31 · 1.70× (close 23.13 · TBVPS 13.59)2022-03-31 · 1.97× (close 22.38 · TBVPS 11.35)2022-06-30 · 1.66× (close 17.23 · TBVPS 10.36)2022-09-30 · 1.88× (close 16.02 · TBVPS 8.51)2022-12-31 · 2.01× (close 17.42 · TBVPS 8.68)2023-03-31 · 1.30× (close 12.52 · TBVPS 9.62)2023-06-30 · 1.01× (close 9.24 · TBVPS 9.15)2023-09-30 · 1.25× (close 10.76 · TBVPS 8.63)2023-12-31 · 1.44× (close 14.40 · TBVPS 9.99)2024-03-31 · 1.60× (close 15.81 · TBVPS 9.87)2024-06-30 · 1.40× (close 14.21 · TBVPS 10.12)2024-09-30 · 1.37× (close 16.75 · TBVPS 12.19)2024-12-31 · 1.31× (close 17.14 · TBVPS 13.07)2025-03-31 · 1.29× (close 15.99 · TBVPS 12.41)2025-06-30 · 1.35× (close 17.42 · TBVPS 12.92)2025-09-30 · 1.39× (close 18.69 · TBVPS 13.48)2025-12-31 · 1.49× (close 20.64 · TBVPS 13.81)2026-03-31 · 1.48× (close 20.05 · TBVPS 13.59)2026-06-30 · 1.70× (close 23.05 · TBVPS 13.58)p75 1.68×med 1.44×p25 1.33×
Five-year median 1.44×, middle half 1.33–1.68×, range 1.01–2.01×.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B
02468Interest income: 8.3 $B8.3InterestincomeInterest expense: −3.3 $B−3.3InterestexpenseNII: 5.0 $B5.0NIINon-interest income: 2.2 $B2.2Non-interestincomeNet revenue: 7.2 $B7.2NetrevenueOperating expenses: −4.9 $B−4.9OperatingexpensesProvision: −0.3 $B−0.3ProvisionOther items: 0.7 $B0.7OtheritemsPre-tax: 2.7 $B2.7Pre-taxTax: −0.6 $B−0.6TaxNet income: 2.1 $B2.1Netincome

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10)
KEY69 / 31
Tier average77 / 23

Efficiency 68.2% vs. tier 60.9% · ROTCE — vs. 13.7% · credit cost 3.8% vs. 4.2% · AOCI/TCE — vs. −12.1%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
NII, $B1.3
Provision, $B0.06
Efficiency60.9%
AOCI / TCE80.1%