SweetValueLab
Write for us

First Citizens — bank health check

FCNCA
RegionalAssets $241.2B4-quarter TTM
Close · Oct 26, 20262,345.61P/E 12.0 · yield 0.4%
P/TBV1.41×TBVPS 1,666.50
Line · r 10%1.39×range 1.22–1.63×
+1% premiumP/TBV ÷ line − 1
Fed funds · last FOMC3.75–4.00%Sep 16, 2026 · +25bp
UST 3m · 2y · 10y · Oct 26, 20264.22 · 4.68 · 5.0010y−2y +0.32 · 10y−3m +0.78
KBE · YTD+8.9%1D +0.4% · 1Y +14.4% · 5Y +17%
KRE · YTD+12.2%1D +0.4% · 1Y +18.8% · 5Y +0%
SPY · YTD+12.3%1D +0.8% · 1Y +13.1% · 5Y +68%
Prices as ofOct 26, 2026Financials TTM through Sep 30, 2026

Valuation range

the line at three costs of equity
r 11% · 1.22×r 9% · 1.63×now 1.41×
0.0×1.0×2.0×3.0×4.0×

At r = 10% the line gives 1.39× for a 12.8% ROTCE; the market pays 1.41×, a 1% premium to the line.

Where it has traded

quarter-end P/TBV · 20 quarters · Dec 31, 2021 → Sep 30, 2026
0.50×1.00×1.50×2.00×2.50×2021202220232024202520262021-12-31 · 2.03× (close 829.84 · TBVPS 408.52)2022-03-31 · 1.14× (close 665.60 · TBVPS 582.23)2022-06-30 · 1.13× (close 653.78 · TBVPS 577.80)2022-09-30 · 1.48× (close 797.43 · TBVPS 537.96)2022-12-31 · 1.34× (close 758.36 · TBVPS 566.17)2023-03-31 · 0.80× (close 973.10 · TBVPS 1210.45)2023-06-30 · 1.03× (close 1283.45 · TBVPS 1249.97)2023-09-30 · 1.07× (close 1380.10 · TBVPS 1293.62)2023-12-31 · 1.05× (close 1418.97 · TBVPS 1354.26)2024-03-31 · 1.17× (close 1635.00 · TBVPS 1396.60)2024-06-30 · 1.17× (close 1683.61 · TBVPS 1441.72)2024-09-30 · 1.24× (close 1840.95 · TBVPS 1482.26)2024-12-31 · 1.42× (close 2113.02 · TBVPS 1488.01)2025-03-31 · 1.21× (close 1854.12 · TBVPS 1532.67)2025-06-30 · 1.24× (close 1956.47 · TBVPS 1572.76)2025-09-30 · 1.12× (close 1789.16 · TBVPS 1597.05)2025-12-31 · 1.31× (close 2146.18 · TBVPS 1643.77)2026-03-31 · 1.14× (close 1884.66 · TBVPS 1656.62)2026-06-30 · 1.22× (close 2080.79 · TBVPS 1700.62)2026-09-30 · 1.24× (close 2060.20 · TBVPS 1666.50)p75 1.26×med 1.19×p25 1.13×now 1.41×
Five-year median 1.19×, middle half 1.13–1.26×, range 0.80–2.03×. Now 1.41×: +18% above its own median, higher than 85% of those quarters.Each quarter priced at its own TBVPS · the band is the 25th–75th percentile

Where the money goes

TTM through Sep 30, 2026 · $B
0510Interest income: 11.5 $B11.5InterestincomeInterest expense: −4.8 $B−4.8InterestexpenseNII: 6.7 $B6.7NIINon-interest income: 2.9 $B2.9Non-interestincomeNet revenue: 9.6 $B9.6NetrevenueOperating expenses: −6.2 $B−6.2OperatingexpensesProvision: −0.2 $B−0.2ProvisionPre-tax: 3.2 $B3.2Pre-taxTax: −0.8 $B−0.8TaxNet income: 2.4 $B2.4Netincome
assets $241.2B ÷ TCE $18.7B = 12.9× leverage · ROA 0.99% × 12.9 = ROTCE 12.8%

Revenue mix

NII vs. non-interest income · Regional peers (10)
FCNCA70 / 30
Tier average77 / 23

Efficiency 64.3% vs. tier 61.4% · ROTCE 12.8% vs. 13.8% · credit cost 2.2% vs. 4.4% · AOCI/TCE −4.2% vs. −13.2%.

Quarter by quarter

8 quarters · Dec 31, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · a gap is a dropped quarter
NII, $B1.7
Provision, $B0.06
Efficiency64.7%
AOCI / TCE−4.2%