Valens Semiconductor Ltd.

VLN

TechnologySemiconductorsNYSE

$2.41

Market Cap: $253.76M

Valens Semiconductor Ltd. (VLN) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 05:56

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.07 – $1.85	$0.19	-92.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.06 – $1.67	$0.15	-93.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.88 – $4.23	$3.83	+58.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Valens Semiconductor Ltd. (VLN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.15

Market Price

$2.41

Upside / Downside

-93.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -48.5% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.8%, Valens Semiconductor Ltd. (VLN) has an intrinsic value of $0.15 per share (range: $0.06 – $1.67).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-48.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	76	7.6%	-36.7%	-28	-28	2	(2)	-2	-26	-25
2027	89	16.6%	-25.0%	-22	-22	2	(2)	3	-25	-22
2028	105	18.4%	-13.2%	-14	-14	3	(3)	4	-18	-15
2029	120	14.3%	-1.5%	-2	-2	3	(4)	4	-6	-5
2030	120	-0.0%	10.2%	12	10	3	(5)	-0	8	6
2031	121	0.5%	10.2%	12	10	3	(5)	0	8	5
2032	122	1.0%	10.2%	12	10	3	(6)	0	7	4
2033	124	1.5%	10.2%	13	10	3	(6)	0	7	3
2034	126	2.0%	10.2%	13	10	3	(7)	1	6	3
2035	129	2.5%	10.2%	13	10	4	(8)	1	5	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-43

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)96

PV of Terminal Value43

Enterprise Value-0

(–) Net Debt-16

Equity Value16

(÷) Shares Outstanding103

Fair Value per Share$0.15

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
7.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1
8.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$0	$1
10.8%	$-1	$-0	$-0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 24.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Valens Semiconductor Ltd. (VLN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.19

Market Price

$2.41

Upside / Downside

-92.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-48.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	76	7.6%	-36.7%	-28	-28	2	(2)	-2	-26	-25
2027	89	16.6%	-25.0%	-22	-22	2	(3)	3	-26	-23
2028	105	18.4%	-13.2%	-14	-14	3	(5)	4	-20	-16
2029	120	14.3%	-1.5%	-2	-2	3	(6)	4	-8	-6
2030	120	-0.0%	10.2%	12	10	3	(7)	-0	6	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-66

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)102

PV of Terminal Value70

Enterprise Value4

(–) Net Debt-16

Equity Value19

(÷) Shares Outstanding103

Fair Value per Share$0.19

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
7.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1
8.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$0	$1
10.8%	$-1	$-0	$-0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 24.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.83

Market Price

$2.41

Upside / Downside

+58.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Valens Semiconductor Ltd. (VLN) has a fair value of $3.83 based on 9 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Valens Semiconductor Ltd.VLN	249	3.3x	3.4x
AXT, Inc.AXTI	5,396	60.4x	67.4x
Silvaco Group, Inc. Common StockSVCO	379	5.9x	6.7x
GSI Technology, Inc.GSIT	247	9.8x	5.6x
Lantronix, Inc.LTRX	245	2.0x	2.0x
Digimarc CorporationDMRC	207	6.0x	5.2x
Tucows Inc.TCX	179	2.1x	2.5x
Duos Technologies Group, Inc.DUOT	170	5.7x	9.9x
Airship AI Holdings, Inc.AISP	88	5.0x	3.2x
Sequans Communications S.A.SQNS	52	4.0x	3.0x
Industry Median		5.7x	5.2x
(*) Revenue		71	69
= Enterprise Value		400	358
(-) Net Debt		-16	-16
Equity Value		416	374
(/) Outstanding shares		103	103
Fair Price		$4	$4

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.83

+58.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.07 – $1.85

$0.19

-92.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.06 – $1.67

$0.15

-93.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.88 – $4.23

$3.83

+58.7%

DCF Analysis

Valens Semiconductor Ltd. (VLN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.15

Market Price

$2.41

Upside / Downside

-93.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-48.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	76	7.6%	-36.7%	-28	-28	2	(2)	-2	-26	-25
2027	89	16.6%	-25.0%	-22	-22	2	(2)	3	-25	-22
2028	105	18.4%	-13.2%	-14	-14	3	(3)	4	-18	-15
2029	120	14.3%	-1.5%	-2	-2	3	(4)	4	-6	-5
2030	120	-0.0%	10.2%	12	10	3	(5)	-0	8	6
2031	121	0.5%	10.2%	12	10	3	(5)	0	8	5
2032	122	1.0%	10.2%	12	10	3	(6)	0	7	4
2033	124	1.5%	10.2%	13	10	3	(6)	0	7	3
2034	126	2.0%	10.2%	13	10	3	(7)	1	6	3
2035	129	2.5%	10.2%	13	10	4	(8)	1	5	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-43

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)96

PV of Terminal Value43

Enterprise Value-0

(–) Net Debt-16

Equity Value16

(÷) Shares Outstanding103

Fair Value per Share$0.15

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
7.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1
8.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$0	$1
10.8%	$-1	$-0	$-0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 24.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.83

Market Price

$2.41

Upside / Downside

+58.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Valens Semiconductor Ltd. (VLN) has a fair value of $3.83 based on 9 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Valens Semiconductor Ltd.VLN	249	3.3x	3.4x
AXT, Inc.AXTI	5,396	60.4x	67.4x
Silvaco Group, Inc. Common StockSVCO	379	5.9x	6.7x
GSI Technology, Inc.GSIT	247	9.8x	5.6x
Lantronix, Inc.LTRX	245	2.0x	2.0x
Digimarc CorporationDMRC	207	6.0x	5.2x
Tucows Inc.TCX	179	2.1x	2.5x
Duos Technologies Group, Inc.DUOT	170	5.7x	9.9x
Airship AI Holdings, Inc.AISP	88	5.0x	3.2x
Sequans Communications S.A.SQNS	52	4.0x	3.0x
Industry Median		5.7x	5.2x
(*) Revenue		71	69
= Enterprise Value		400	358
(-) Net Debt		-16	-16
Equity Value		416	374
(/) Outstanding shares		103	103
Fair Price		$4	$4

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.83

+58.7%