AXT, Inc.

AXTI

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$125.81

Market Cap: $5.83B

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:24

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.39 – $11.90	$4.78	-88.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.12 – $4.23	$0.77	-98.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.24 – $16.58	$5.02	-88.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.77

Market Price

$125.81

Upside / Downside

-99.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -24.9% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.8%, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) has an intrinsic value of $0.77 per share (range: $0.12 – $4.23).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-24.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

12.5%

D&A/Revenue

8.3%

Tax Rate

8.3%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	125	41.8%	-17.9%	-22	-22	10	(17)	23	-52	-50
2027	173	37.9%	-10.9%	-19	-19	14	(23)	45	-72	-64
2028	155	-10.0%	-4.0%	-6	-6	13	(21)	-16	2	2
2029	140	-10.0%	3.0%	4	4	12	(18)	-15	12	9
2030	126	-10.0%	10.0%	13	12	11	(16)	-13	19	13
2031	116	-8.2%	10.0%	12	11	10	(15)	-10	15	9
2032	109	-6.0%	10.0%	11	10	9	(14)	-7	12	7
2033	105	-3.7%	10.0%	10	10	9	(13)	-4	9	5
2034	103	-1.5%	10.0%	10	9	9	(13)	-1	6	3
2035	104	0.8%	10.0%	10	9	9	(13)	1	4	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-64

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)78

PV of Terminal Value35

Enterprise Value-29

(–) Net Debt-63

Equity Value34

(÷) Shares Outstanding44

Fair Value per Share$0.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.8%	$-1	$0	$1	$3	$4
7.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
8.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
9.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
10.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $125.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 94.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.78

Market Price

$125.81

Upside / Downside

-96.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -24.9% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.8%, AXT, Inc. (AXTI) has an intrinsic value of $4.78 per share (range: $1.39 – $11.90).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-24.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

12.5%

D&A/Revenue

8.3%

Tax Rate

8.3%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	125	41.8%	-17.9%	-22	-22	10	(17)	23	-52	-49
2027	173	37.9%	-10.9%	-19	-19	14	(23)	45	-72	-63
2028	155	-10.0%	-4.0%	-6	-6	13	(20)	-16	3	2
2029	140	-10.0%	3.0%	4	4	12	(18)	-15	12	9
2030	126	-10.0%	10.0%	13	12	11	(16)	-13	19	13

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-88

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)344

PV of Terminal Value235

Enterprise Value147

(–) Net Debt-63

Equity Value210

(÷) Shares Outstanding44

Fair Value per Share$4.78

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.8%	$5	$6	$8	$10	$12
7.8%	$3	$5	$6	$8	$9
8.8%	$2	$4	$5	$6	$7
9.8%	$2	$3	$4	$5	$6
10.8%	$1	$2	$3	$4	$5

Current price: $125.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 94.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.02

Market Price

$125.81

Upside / Downside

-96.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), AXT, Inc. (AXTI) has a fair value of $5.02 based on 10 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
AXT, Inc.AXTI	5,527	61.9x	69.1x
LightPath Technologies, Inc.LPTH	501	13.8x	15.8x
NVE CorporationNVEC	340	12.9x	9.4x
Gorilla Technology Group Inc.GRRR	269	1.8x	2.3x
CS Disco, Inc.LAW	239	1.4x	1.5x
Blaize Holdings, Inc.BZAI	230	4.8x	77.5x
Commerce.com, Inc.CMRC	224	1.0x	1.0x
Repay Holdings CorporationRPAY	214	1.7x	1.7x
GSI Technology, Inc.GSIT	158	7.5x	3.5x
Valens Semiconductor Ltd.VLN	125	1.6x	1.6x
Bakkt Holdings, Inc.BKKT	122	0.0x	1.4x
Industry Median		1.8x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		88	79
= Enterprise Value		157	159
(-) Net Debt		-63	-63
Equity Value		219	222
(/) Outstanding shares		44	44
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.02

-96.0%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.39 – $11.90

$4.78

-88.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.12 – $4.23

$0.77

-98.2%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$4.24 – $16.58

$5.02

-88.0%

DCF Analysis

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.77

Market Price

$125.81

Upside / Downside

-99.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-24.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

12.5%

D&A/Revenue

8.3%

Tax Rate

8.3%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	125	41.8%	-17.9%	-22	-22	10	(17)	23	-52	-50
2027	173	37.9%	-10.9%	-19	-19	14	(23)	45	-72	-64
2028	155	-10.0%	-4.0%	-6	-6	13	(21)	-16	2	2
2029	140	-10.0%	3.0%	4	4	12	(18)	-15	12	9
2030	126	-10.0%	10.0%	13	12	11	(16)	-13	19	13
2031	116	-8.2%	10.0%	12	11	10	(15)	-10	15	9
2032	109	-6.0%	10.0%	11	10	9	(14)	-7	12	7
2033	105	-3.7%	10.0%	10	10	9	(13)	-4	9	5
2034	103	-1.5%	10.0%	10	9	9	(13)	-1	6	3
2035	104	0.8%	10.0%	10	9	9	(13)	1	4	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-64

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)78

PV of Terminal Value35

Enterprise Value-29

(–) Net Debt-63

Equity Value34

(÷) Shares Outstanding44

Fair Value per Share$0.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.8%	$-1	$0	$1	$3	$4
7.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
8.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
9.8%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
10.8%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $125.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 94.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.02

Market Price

$125.81

Upside / Downside

-96.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), AXT, Inc. (AXTI) has a fair value of $5.02 based on 10 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
AXT, Inc.AXTI	5,527	61.9x	69.1x
LightPath Technologies, Inc.LPTH	501	13.8x	15.8x
NVE CorporationNVEC	340	12.9x	9.4x
Gorilla Technology Group Inc.GRRR	269	1.8x	2.3x
CS Disco, Inc.LAW	239	1.4x	1.5x
Blaize Holdings, Inc.BZAI	230	4.8x	77.5x
Commerce.com, Inc.CMRC	224	1.0x	1.0x
Repay Holdings CorporationRPAY	214	1.7x	1.7x
GSI Technology, Inc.GSIT	158	7.5x	3.5x
Valens Semiconductor Ltd.VLN	125	1.6x	1.6x
Bakkt Holdings, Inc.BKKT	122	0.0x	1.4x
Industry Median		1.8x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		88	79
= Enterprise Value		157	159
(-) Net Debt		-63	-63
Equity Value		219	222
(/) Outstanding shares		44	44
Fair Price		$5	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.02

-96.0%