Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Privia Health Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.1% to 10.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 13831, DPO 20, DIO 60). At a 6.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (0% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $296.04 per share, suggesting PRVA is undervalued by 1208.2% at the current price of $22.63.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -37,102 | -40,964 | -45,830 | -48,814 | -53,746 | -55,089 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (+) D&A | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| EBITDA | -37,100 | -40,962 | -45,827 | -48,811 | -53,743 | -55,087 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -310,033 | 9,409 | 11,855 | 7,271 | 12,016 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 272,932 | -50,373 | -57,684 | -56,084 | -65,762 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | -695,192 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.52% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 264,446 | -45,819 | -49,258 | -44,960 | -49,491 | -506,921 |
| Enterprise Value | -432,002 | |||||
| Projection Period | 74,919 | 0.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | -506,921 | 0.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (470,154) | |||||
| Equity Value | 38,152 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 129M | |||||
| Fair Price | $296 | +1208.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.6x | 10.6x | 12.6x | 14.6x | 16.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | $1208 | $523 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 5.5% | $1380 | $727 | $73 | $0 | $0 |
| 6.5% | $1543 | $919 | $296 | $0 | $0 |
| 7.5% | $1696 | $1102 | $507 | $0 | $0 |
| 8.5% | $1842 | $1274 | $706 | $138 | $0 |
Current price: $22.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) has a fair value of $7.79 based on 2 comparable companies in the Medical - Healthcare Information Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Privia Health Group, Inc.PRVA | 2,917 | 125.7x | 88.6x |
| Envista Holdings Corp | 4,244 | 92.2x | 22.5x |
| Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. | 2,651 | 12.9x | 12.1x |
| Industry Median | 52.5x | 17.3x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 23 | 33 | |
| Equity Value | 1,204 | 804 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 129 | 129 | |
| Fair Price | $9 | $6 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) has a fair value of $8.33 based on 3 comparable companies in the Medical - Healthcare Information Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Privia Health Group, Inc.PRVA | 2,917 | 55.4x | 48.8x |
| Envista Holdings Corp | 4,244 | 13.9x | 14.3x |
| ICU Medical, Inc. | 3,037 | 12.6x | 13.0x |
| Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. | 2,651 | 9.9x | 10.3x |
| Industry Median | 12.6x | 13.0x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 44 | 50 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 557 | 650 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -470 | -470 | |
| Equity Value | 1,027 | 1,120 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 129 | 129 | |
| Fair Price | $8 | $9 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) has a fair value of $54.49 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Healthcare Information Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Privia Health Group, Inc.PRVA | 2,917 | 1.2x | 1.0x |
| Envista Holdings Corp | 4,244 | 1.7x | 1.8x |
| LivaNova PLC | 3,473 | 2.4x | 2.2x |
| ICU Medical, Inc. | 3,037 | 1.8x | 1.9x |
| Travere Therapeutics, Inc. | 2,936 | 6.5x | 4.6x |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. | 2,934 | 7.7x | 5.8x |
| Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. | 2,651 | 3.2x | 3.3x |
| Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock | 2,226 | 12.5x | 10.0x |
| Alphatec Holdings, Inc. | 1,660 | 2.8x | 2.4x |
| Industry Median | 3.0x | 2.8x | |
| (*) Revenue | 2,123 | 2,413 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 6,300 | 6,807 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -470 | -470 | |
| Equity Value | 6,770 | 7,277 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 129 | 129 | |
| Fair Price | $53 | $56 | |
Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $8.76 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $0.35. The current PEG ratio is 1.56.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 39.4% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $0.35 |
| Fair Value | $8.76 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $0.18 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $0.35 | +94.7% | 12 |
| FY2027E | $0.45 | +28.6% | 12 |
| FY2028E | $0.65 | +43.1% | 7 |
| FY2029E | $0.79 | +22.4% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $0.95 | +19.8% | 6 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 39.4%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $-188.2M | $-1.77 | — |
| FY2022 | $-8.6M | $-0.11 | — |
| FY2023 | $23.1M | $0.19 | — |
| FY2024 | $14.4M | $0.11 | -42.1% |
| FY2025 | $22.9M | $0.18 | +63.6% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 10.8%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.