Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock

HTFL

HealthcareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesNASDAQ

$29.51

Market Cap: $2.53B

Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 09:58

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.13 – $2.37	$0.39	-98.7%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.40 – $6.21	$1.69	-94.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.88 – $2.24	$1.46	-95.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.69

Market Price

$29.51

Upside / Downside

-94.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -36.4% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) has an intrinsic value of $1.69 per share (range: $0.40 – $6.21).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-36.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

10.0%

D&A/Revenue

6.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	220	25.2%	-26.5%	-58	-58	15	(11)	15	-70	-67
2027	273	23.7%	-16.6%	-45	-45	18	(15)	10	-52	-46
2028	334	22.7%	-6.6%	-22	-22	22	(20)	12	-32	-26
2029	420	25.6%	3.3%	14	11	28	(28)	16	-5	-4
2030	495	17.9%	13.2%	65	52	33	(36)	14	35	24
2031	644	30.0%	13.2%	85	67	43	(50)	28	32	20
2032	831	29.1%	13.2%	110	87	56	(69)	35	37	22
2033	1,018	22.6%	13.2%	134	106	68	(91)	35	48	26
2034	1,182	16.0%	13.2%	156	123	79	(112)	31	59	29
2035	1,294	9.5%	13.2%	171	135	86	(130)	21	70	32

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)10

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,292

PV of Terminal Value589

Enterprise Value600

(–) Net Debt-23

Equity Value622

(÷) Shares Outstanding369

Fair Value per Share$1.69

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.6%	$0	$2	$3	$5	$6
7.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$5
8.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$4
9.6%	$-0	$1	$1	$2	$3
10.6%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $29.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 18.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.39

Market Price

$29.51

Upside / Downside

-98.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-36.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

10.0%

D&A/Revenue

6.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	220	25.2%	-26.5%	-58	-58	15	(12)	15	-71	-68
2027	273	23.7%	-16.6%	-45	-45	18	(18)	10	-55	-49
2028	334	22.7%	-6.6%	-22	-22	22	(26)	12	-38	-31
2029	420	25.6%	3.3%	14	11	28	(37)	16	-15	-11
2030	495	17.9%	13.2%	65	52	33	(50)	14	21	14

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-144

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)383

PV of Terminal Value264

Enterprise Value120

(–) Net Debt-23

Equity Value143

(÷) Shares Outstanding369

Fair Value per Share$0.39

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.6%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
7.6%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
8.6%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.6%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
10.6%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $29.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 18.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.46

Market Price

$29.51

Upside / Downside

-95.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) has a fair value of $1.46 based on 9 comparable companies in the Medical - Healthcare Information Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Heartflow, Inc. Common StockHTFL	10,876	61.7x	49.2x
Legend Biotech CorporationLEGN	5,201	4.6x	3.3x
Travere Therapeutics, Inc.TVTX	3,967	8.6x	6.0x
LivaNova PLCLIVN	3,948	2.7x	2.5x
Privia Health Group, Inc.PRVA	3,014	1.2x	1.1x
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.TARS	2,722	5.8x	3.8x
Zai Lab LimitedZLAB	2,188	3.8x	3.5x
Surgery Partners, Inc.SGRY	1,872	1.7x	1.7x
Perrigo Company plcPRGO	1,613	1.2x	1.2x
Alphatec Holdings, Inc.ATEC	1,156	2.1x	1.8x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.5x
(*) Revenue		176	220
= Enterprise Value		480	552
(-) Net Debt		-23	-23
Equity Value		503	575
(/) Outstanding shares		369	369
Fair Price		$1	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.46

-95.0%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.13 – $2.37

$0.39

-98.7%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.40 – $6.21

$1.69

-94.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.88 – $2.24

$1.46

-95.0%

DCF Analysis

Heartflow, Inc. Common Stock (HTFL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.69

Market Price

$29.51

Upside / Downside

-94.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-36.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

10.0%

D&A/Revenue

6.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	220	25.2%	-26.5%	-58	-58	15	(11)	15	-70	-67
2027	273	23.7%	-16.6%	-45	-45	18	(15)	10	-52	-46
2028	334	22.7%	-6.6%	-22	-22	22	(20)	12	-32	-26
2029	420	25.6%	3.3%	14	11	28	(28)	16	-5	-4
2030	495	17.9%	13.2%	65	52	33	(36)	14	35	24
2031	644	30.0%	13.2%	85	67	43	(50)	28	32	20
2032	831	29.1%	13.2%	110	87	56	(69)	35	37	22
2033	1,018	22.6%	13.2%	134	106	68	(91)	35	48	26
2034	1,182	16.0%	13.2%	156	123	79	(112)	31	59	29
2035	1,294	9.5%	13.2%	171	135	86	(130)	21	70	32

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)10

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,292

PV of Terminal Value589

Enterprise Value600

(–) Net Debt-23

Equity Value622

(÷) Shares Outstanding369

Fair Value per Share$1.69

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
6.6%	$0	$2	$3	$5	$6
7.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$5
8.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$4
9.6%	$-0	$1	$1	$2	$3
10.6%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $29.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 18.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.46

Market Price

$29.51

Upside / Downside

-95.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Heartflow, Inc. Common StockHTFL	10,876	61.7x	49.2x
Legend Biotech CorporationLEGN	5,201	4.6x	3.3x
Travere Therapeutics, Inc.TVTX	3,967	8.6x	6.0x
LivaNova PLCLIVN	3,948	2.7x	2.5x
Privia Health Group, Inc.PRVA	3,014	1.2x	1.1x
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.TARS	2,722	5.8x	3.8x
Zai Lab LimitedZLAB	2,188	3.8x	3.5x
Surgery Partners, Inc.SGRY	1,872	1.7x	1.7x
Perrigo Company plcPRGO	1,613	1.2x	1.2x
Alphatec Holdings, Inc.ATEC	1,156	2.1x	1.8x
Industry Median		2.7x	2.5x
(*) Revenue		176	220
= Enterprise Value		480	552
(-) Net Debt		-23	-23
Equity Value		503	575
(/) Outstanding shares		369	369
Fair Price		$1	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.46

-95.0%