Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

Financial ServicesInsurance - ReinsuranceNYSE

$30.90

Market Cap: $3.08B

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 27, 2026 22:21

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$72.85 – $286.93	$115.86	+256.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$160.40 – $685.40	$265.53	+717.0%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$77.34 – $194.75	$131.04	+303.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$120.97 – $304.37	$198.69	+511.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$52.72 – $76.71	$55.13	+69.6%
EV/EBITDA	$63.54 – $119.30	$109.76	+237.7%
EV/Revenue	$66.75 – $100.79	$103.27	+217.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$142.00 – $142.00	$142.00	+336.9%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$89.35 – $128.92	$105.19	+223.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$115.86

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+275.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.1% to 19.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 377, DPO 146, DIO 60). At a 7.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (92% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $115.86 per share, suggesting HG is undervalued by 275.0% at the current price of $30.90.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.51%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	894	970	1,029	1,232	1,474	1,511
(−) Net Interest	32	35	37	45	53	55
(+) D&A	0	30	63	98	139	143
EBITDA	926	1,035	1,129	1,374	1,667	1,709

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	151	164	174	208	249	255
(−) ΔWC	2,190	226	175	602	721	739
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-1,415	645	780	564	697	715

Terminal Value						14,260
WACC / Discount Rate	7.5%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-1,364	579	651	437	503	9,928

Enterprise Value	10,734
Projection Period	806	7.5%
Terminal Value	9,928	92.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,022)

Equity Value	11,756
(/) Outstanding Shares	101

Fair Price	$115.86

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.5%	$153	$172	$198	$234	$287
6.5%	$121	$132	$147	$165	$189
7.5%	$100	$107	$116	$127	$140
8.5%	$84	$89	$95	$102	$111
9.5%	$73	$77	$81	$86	$91

Current price: $30.90. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$265.53

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+759.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.1% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 377, DPO 146, DIO 60). At a 7.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $265.53 per share, suggesting HG is undervalued by 759.3% at the current price of $30.90.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.51%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	894	970	1,029	1,232	1,474	1,724	1,967	2,191	2,378	2,516	2,579
(−) Net Interest	32	35	37	45	53	62	71	79	86	91	93
(+) D&A	0	30	63	98	139	189	217	251	290	329	337
EBITDA	926	1,035	1,129	1,374	1,667	1,975	2,256	2,521	2,754	2,936	3,009

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(−) CapEx	151	164	174	208	249	291	332	370	402	425	436
(−) ΔWC	2,190	226	175	602	721	741	724	663	557	409	419
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-1,415	645	780	564	697	943	1,200	1,487	1,795	2,102	2,154

Terminal Value											42,997
WACC / Discount Rate	7.5%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-1,364	579	651	437	503	633	749	864	970	1,056	20,841

Enterprise Value	25,920
Projection Period	5,079	19.6%
Terminal Value	20,841	80.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,022)

Equity Value	26,942
(/) Outstanding Shares	101

Fair Price	$265.53

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.5%	$377	$422	$480	$562	$685
6.5%	$289	$314	$346	$386	$439
7.5%	$231	$247	$266	$288	$317
8.5%	$191	$201	$213	$227	$244
9.5%	$160	$168	$176	$185	$196

Current price: $30.90. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$131.04

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+324.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.1% to 19.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 377, DPO 146, DIO 60). At a 7.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (93% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $131.04 per share, suggesting HG is undervalued by 324.1% at the current price of $30.90.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.51%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.64x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	894	970	1,029	1,232	1,474	1,511
(−) Net Interest	32	35	37	45	53	55
(+) D&A	0	30	63	98	139	143
EBITDA	926	1,035	1,129	1,374	1,667	1,709

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	151	164	174	208	249	—
(−) ΔWC	2,190	226	175	602	721	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-1,415	645	780	564	697	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.6x
Terminal Value						16,472
WACC / Discount Rate	7.51%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-1,364	579	651	437	503	11,468

Enterprise Value	12,274
Projection Period	806	6.6%
Terminal Value	11,468	93.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,022)
Equity Value	13,296
(÷) Outstanding Shares	101M
Fair Price	$131	+324.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.5%	$92	$117	$143	$169	$195
6.5%	$88	$112	$137	$162	$186
7.5%	$84	$108	$131	$154	$178
8.5%	$81	$103	$125	$148	$170
9.5%	$77	$99	$120	$141	$163

Current price: $30.90. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$198.69

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+543.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.1% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 377, DPO 146, DIO 60). At a 7.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $198.69 per share, suggesting HG is undervalued by 543.0% at the current price of $30.90.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.51%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.64x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	894	970	1,029	1,232	1,474	1,724	1,967	2,191	2,378	2,516	2,579
(−) Net Interest	32	35	37	45	53	62	71	79	86	91	93
(+) D&A	0	30	63	98	139	189	217	251	290	329	337
EBITDA	926	1,035	1,129	1,374	1,667	1,975	2,256	2,521	2,754	2,936	3,009

(−) Tax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
(−) CapEx	151	164	174	208	249	291	332	370	402	425	—
(−) ΔWC	2,190	226	175	602	721	741	724	663	557	409	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-1,415	645	780	564	697	943	1,200	1,487	1,795	2,102	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.6x
Terminal Value											29,006
WACC / Discount Rate	7.51%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-1,364	579	651	437	503	633	749	864	970	1,056	14,060

Enterprise Value	19,138
Projection Period	5,079	26.5%
Terminal Value	14,060	73.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	(1,022)
Equity Value	20,161
(÷) Outstanding Shares	101M
Fair Price	$199	+543.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.5%	$166	$200	$235	$270	$304
6.5%	$153	$184	$216	$248	$279
7.5%	$141	$170	$199	$227	$256
8.5%	$131	$157	$183	$209	$235
9.5%	$121	$145	$169	$193	$217

Current price: $30.90. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$55.13

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+78.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) has a fair value of $55.13 based on 8 comparable companies in the Insurance - Reinsurance industry.

P/E Valuation — Insurance - Reinsurance

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.HG	3,135	5.4x	8.0x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,898	9.3x	11.5x
Marex Group plc Ordinary SharesMRX	3,821	13.7x	17.8x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,216	11.6x	12.5x
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,972	10.2x	24.5x
SiriusPoint Ltd.SPNT	2,741	6.4x	14.7x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,693	13.5x	10.4x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,654	12.2x	193.9x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,353	5.6x	4.4x
Industry Median		10.9x	13.6x
(*) Profit after tax		577	392
Equity Value		6,282	4,905
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$62	$48

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$55.13

+78.4%

Fair Value

$108.68

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+251.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) has a fair value of $108.68 based on 8 comparable companies in the Insurance - Reinsurance industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Insurance - Reinsurance

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.HG	3,135	2.6x	3.4x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,898	9.8x	16.4x
Marex Group plc Ordinary SharesMRX	3,821	6.3x	14.7x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,216	12.3x	20.1x
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,972	12.9x	41.8x
SiriusPoint Ltd.SPNT	2,741	4.1x	4.7x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,693	12.9x	27.0x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,654	9.5x	19.9x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,353	4.0x	4.7x
Industry Median		9.6x	18.1x
(*) EBITDA		861	658
= Enterprise Value		8,300	11,929
(-) Net Debt		-913	-913
Equity Value		9,213	12,841
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$91	$127

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$108.68

+251.7%

Fair Value

$102.19

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+230.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) has a fair value of $102.19 based on 9 comparable companies in the Insurance - Reinsurance industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Insurance - Reinsurance

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.HG	3,135	0.8x	1.1x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,898	2.2x	3.7x
Marex Group plc Ordinary SharesMRX	3,821	2.1x	4.9x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,216	3.4x	5.5x
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,972	3.8x	12.3x
SiriusPoint Ltd.SPNT	2,741	0.8x	0.9x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,693	2.7x	5.7x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,654	2.8x	5.8x
Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common StockSLDE	2,353	2.0x	2.4x
Eagle Point Credit Company Inc.ECC	522	7.4x	5.4x
Industry Median		2.7x	5.4x
(*) Revenue		2,743	2,096
= Enterprise Value		7,495	11,418
(-) Net Debt		-913	-913
Equity Value		8,407	12,330
(/) Outstanding shares		101	101
Fair Price		$83	$122

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$102.19

+230.7%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$142.00

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+359.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $142.00 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $5.68. The current PEG ratio is 0.11.

PEG Ratio

0.11Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 5.7 ÷ 52.6% = 0.11

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	52.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$5.68
Fair Value	$142.00

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$188.2M	$-4.20	—
FY2022	$-98.0M	$-0.89	—
FY2023	$258.7M	$2.44	—
FY2024	$400.4M	$3.67	+50.4%
FY2025	$576.7M	$5.68	+54.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 52.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$105.19

Market Price

$30.90

Upside / Downside

+240.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.5% and normalized earnings of $724.8M, the company has a fair value of $105.19 per share. The EPV range is $89.35 – $128.92 based on WACC sensitivity (6.0% – 9.0%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	725	725	725
(/) WACC	9.0%	7.5%	6.0%
Enterprise Value	8,044	9,651	12,059
(-) Net debt	-1,022	-1,022	-1,022
Equity Value	9,067	10,673	13,081
(/) Outstanding shares	101	101	101
Fair Price	$89.35	$105.19	$128.92

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.